Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)


	Independiente Santa Fe		Atlético Nacional

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.25	2.2	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.37
	3.25	3.15	2.22	Watch
	3.46	3.22	2.25
	3.29	3.29	2.2
	3.3	3	2.2
	3.26	3.13	2.24	Watch
	2.75	3	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↑ (2.79)	3.14 ↓ (3.19)	2.29 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Santa Fe
29.4%

Draw
29.7%

Atlético Nacional
40.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

28%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

28.2%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mosquera A. (G) 14. Palacios L. 18. Olivera E. 15. Scarpeta Silgado I. R. 32. Mafla C. 16. Torres D. 7. Torres J. 8. Fernandez O. 20. Velasquez Y. 22. Mosquera E. 11. Rodallega H. (C)	1. Ospina D. (C) 6. Roman A. 28. Garcia S. 4. Haydar C. 20. Casco M. 80. Zapata J. 21. Campuzano J. 29. Sarmiento A. 19. Rengifo J. 13. Rodriguez N. 9. Morelos A.
Substitutes
24. Angulo J. 12. Asprilla W. (G) 19. Bustos N. 37. Jhon Renteria 2. Juan Quintero 40. Palacios M. 27. Perlaza Perea Y. A. 6. Toscano Bassa K. D. 10. Zapata A.	17. Arango C. 18. Bello E. 10. Cardona E. 15. Castillo H. (G) 36. Correa R. 35. Lozano M. 7. Moreno M. 3. Parra N. 8. Uribe M.
Coaches
Repetto P.	Arias D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Fernandez O. ⚽, Mosquera E. (A),
32', Velasquez Y. 🟨,
36', Torres J. 🟨,
45', Olivera E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
53', Zapata J. 🟨,
57', Rengifo J. ↓, Cardona E. ↑,
57', Rodriguez N. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
59', Cardona E. 🟨,
63', 1 - 1, Morelos A. (Penalty Awarded),
64', Velasquez Y. ↓, Zapata A. ↑,
69', Mosquera E. ↓, Perlaza Perea Y. A. ↑,
69', Torres D. ↓, Toscano Bassa K. D. ↑,
70', 1 - 2, Morelos A. ⚽, Roman A. (A),
76', Zapata J. ↓, Uribe M. ↑,
76', Sarmiento A. ↓, Bello E. ↑,
79', Torres J. ↓, Bustos N. ↑,
79', Mosquera A. ↓, Asprilla W. ↑,
83', Morelos A. ↓, Arango C. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Fe won 1.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Atlético Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Atlético Nacional has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santa Fe won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 15:34. (average 0.8:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Santa Fe won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 0.9:1.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Atl. Nacional	11	7	2	2	21:10	11	23
5	Santa Fe	12	6	4	2	19:12	7	22

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente Santa Fe - the odds 2.79 are the expected chance of winning is 31.99%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Santa Fe
Colombian Primera A
22.02.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Junior Barranquilla	2:1 ✺
17.02.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Independiente Santa Fe	3:1 ✺
13.02.26	América de Cali - Independiente Santa Fe	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Boyacá Chicó - Independiente Santa Fe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLLTW
- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
21.02.26	Atlético Nacional - Alianza Valledupar	3:0 ✺
15.02.26	Deportivo Cali - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
12.02.26	Atlético Nacional - Fortaleza CEIF	4:1 ✺
04.02.26	Atlético Nacional - América de Cali	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
31.01.26	Atlético Nacional - Inter Miami	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
25.07.25	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1
12.06.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional	1:2
08.06.25	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2
12.02.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional	2:2
08.12.24	Independiente Santa Fe - Atlético Nacional	0:3
20.11.24	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Santa Fe	5:0
04.11.24	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Santa Fe	1:1

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