Match Info

Premier League - Round 27

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday

Location: Vostok Stadium (Oskemen)

Referee: Sulikanov S. (Kaz)


	Altai Semey		Ertis Pavlodar

	1	X	2
	4.10	3.50	1.68
	4.75	3.80	1.50	Watch
	4.38	3.59	1.80
	4.30	3.20	1.78
	6.78	4.06	1.49
	4.40	3.40	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.79 ↑ (2.55)	3.59 ↑ (3.15)	1.65 ↓ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Altai Semey
19.1%

Draw
25.5%

Ertis Pavlodar
55.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

27.9%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

26.8%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Altai Semey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Altai Semey's form might have worsened.

Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ertis Pavlodar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Altai Semey than the current prediction. (+14%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Altai Semey, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (-16.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ertis Pavlodar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Altai Semey - Ertis Pavlodar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Kucher D. (G) 4. Micevic N. 23. Kenzhegulov D. 3. Odeoyibo S. 15. Schmidt D. (C) 21. Jambor N. 18. Nazymkhanov A. 98. Podstrelov D. 77. Popov S. 99. Stoisavljevic D. 45. Dodev D.	1. Rikhard M. (G) 5. Toleuov B. 26. Mbodj M. 4. Slambekov D. 66. Malikaydar S. 6. Shimamura Y. 56. Yudenkov R. (C) 8. Esimbekov D. 12. Karimov R. 9. Leonardo Kalil 7. Mukhametzhanov T.
Substitutes
35. Aliakbar A. (G) 11. Dadaev I. 22. Dzhanuzakov A. 9. Gorshunov E. 19. Gultyaev Z. 91. Khizhnichenko S. 17. Kukeev Z. 29. Lobzhanidze E. 70. Mitrofanov D. 1. Sapargaliev A. (G) 8. Sapargaliyev A. 5. Saylybaev O.	13. Baybosynov N. 21. Berdibek D. 32. Falaye O. A. 25. Jevtic M. 24. Khalmatov M. 77. Nurlan A. 15. Nyrkov D. 17. Opeh S. 97. Poe J. 35. Ramos L. 14. Raskatov V. 29. Sarnavskyi B. (G)
Coaches
Masudov V.	Shoytymov E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Shimamura Y. ⚽,
13', Jambor N. ↓, Gorshunov E. ↑,
34', 1 - 1, Popov S. ⚽, Gorshunov E. (A),
42', Odeoyibo S. 🟨,
44', 1 - 2, Yudenkov R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Esimbekov D. 🟨,
55', Malikaydar S. 🟨,
61', Karimov R. 🟨,
67', Dodev D. ↓, Dadaev I. ↑,
70', Malikaydar S. 🟨,
75', Leonardo Kalil ↓, Nurlan A. ↑,
77', Popov S. ↓, Mitrofanov D. ↑,
78', Shimamura Y. ↓, Khalmatov M. ↑,
79', Esimbekov D. ↓, Nyrkov D. ↑,
90+3', Mukhametzhanov T. ↓, Berdibek D. ↑,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11th and 12th).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Altai has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:3 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Altai against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Ertis Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26:34	-8	26
12	Altai	26	6	7	13	26:36	-10	25

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Altai Semey
Kazakh Premier League
13.09.26	Ulytau - Altai Semey	0:3 ✺
06.09.26	Altai Semey - Kaisar	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Zhenis - Altai Semey	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
19.08.26	Altai Semey - Ordabasy	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
15.08.26	Ordabasy - Altai Semey	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWLLL
- Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League
13.09.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Okzhetpes	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Zhetysu - Ertis Pavlodar	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Aktobe	2:1 ✺
16.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Tobol Kostanay	0:2 ✺
09.08.26	Yelimay Semey - Ertis Pavlodar	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
04.04.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Altai Semey	1:0
Kazakh First League
17.10.25	Altai Semey - Ertis Pavlodar	1:1
11.07.25	Ertis Pavlodar - Altai Semey	1:2

Upcoming Matches