Match Info

GERMANY: 3. LIGA - ROUND 23

Date: 27 January 2024, Saturday

Location: Erzgebirgsstadion (Aue)

Referee: Burda M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport


	Erzgebirge Aue		Lübeck

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.5	3.6
	1.9	3.5	3.7
	1.95	3.6	3.6	Watch
	1.98	3.45	3.61
	1.97	3.74	3.86
	1.83	3.5	3.4
	1.9	3.58	3.67
	1.92	3.55	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.78)	3.55 ↓ (3.65)	3.63 ↓ (3.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
48.4%

Draw
26.1%

Lübeck
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.8%

25.2%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

24.6%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Lübeck has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lübeck than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Erzgebirge Aue - Lübeck Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Aue will win (votes: 7 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aue: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mannel M. (C) 2. Danhof T. 23. Barylla A. 5. Burger K. 29. Rosenlocher L. 21. Schikora M. 10. Pepic M. 11. Sijaric O. 14. Tashchy B. 26. Jakob K. 15. Bar M.	1. Klewin P. (G) 22. Sommer L. 30. Lohden J. 27. Reddemann S. 37. Sternberg J. 31. Boland M. 20. Taffertshofer U. 7. Hauptmann M. 25. Gozusirin T. 21. Velasco R. 29. Facklam M.
Substitutes
17. Elsner L. T. 40. Ferjani R. 25. Kips T. (G) 13. Majetschak E. 9. Meuer S. 12. Schadlich F. 8. Schwirten J. 7. Seitz S. 30. Thiel M.	14. Akono C. 39. Breier P. 8. Egerer F. 10. Farrona-Pulido M. 17. Grupe T. 3. Kastenhofer N. 33. Schneider J. 35. Stein Y. (G) 13. Thiel M.
Coaches
Dotchev P.	Schnorrenberg F.

Preview

Aue is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Lübeck is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Aue could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Aue have a series of guest games.

Aue will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Aue won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
24.01.24	Sandhausen - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0 ✺
19.01.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Rot-Weiß Essen	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
06.01.24	Hertha Berlin - Erzgebirge Aue	2:0 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
19.12.23	Ingolstadt - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1 ✺
16.12.23	Waldhof Mannheim - Erzgebirge Aue	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWLTL
- Vfb Lübeck
German 3 Bundesliga
23.01.24	Lübeck - 1860 München	1:1 ✺
20.01.24	Lübeck - Waldhof Mannheim	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
14.01.24	Hansa Rostock - Lübeck	1:1 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
19.12.23	Sandhausen - Lübeck	1:2 ✺
15.12.23	Rot-Weiß Essen - Lübeck	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
26.08.23	Lübeck - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1

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