Match Info

3. Liga - Round 15

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Erzgebirgsstadion (Aue)

Referee: Uhrig B. H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 10
Germany	Magenta Sport
Usa	ESPN 3, ESPN App
World	Onefootball


	Erzgebirge Aue		VfB Stuttgart II

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.4	2.45	Watch
	2.45	3.55	2.52
	2.46	3.72	2.59
	2.69	3.66	2.31	Watch
	2.44	3.44	2.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.68)	3.55 (3.55)	2.46 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
36.9%

Draw
25.8%

VfB Stuttgart II
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

26.1%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

26.2%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

VfB Stuttgart II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for VfB Stuttgart II than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Erzgebirge Aue - VfB Stuttgart II Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Aue will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Stuttgart II will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aue: 64.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Aue (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mannel M. (G) 17. Fallmann P. 16. Malone R. 25. Zobel T. (C) 30. Seiffert M. 13. Majetschak E. 11. Uhlmann E. 8. Clausen M. 10. Gunther-Schmidt J. 7. Weinhauer E. 15. Bar M.	1. Hellstern F. (G) 23. Spalt Y. 4. Herwerth M. 35. Gluck M. 29. Nothnagel D. (C) 8. Di Benedetto S. 5. Catovic M. 31. Darvich N. 7. Penna L. 27. Ouro-Tagba M. 17. Nankishi A.
Substitutes
9. Bornschein R. 29. Collins J. 24. Ehlers J. 20. Fabisch J. 27. Hetzsch F. 22. Lord L. (G) 37. Seidel P. 5. Simnica L. 14. Tashchy B.	2. Amaniampong K. 19. Fressle K. 6. Groiss A. 13. Kohler T. 11. Korkut E. 18. Luers J. 24. Olivier C. 44. Sankoh M. 33. von der Felsen J. (G)
Coaches
Hartel J.	Willig N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Fallmann P. 🟨,
9', Herwerth M. 🟨,
30', Darvich N. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Nankishi A. 🟨,
54', Bar M. ↓, Bornschein R. ↑,
61', Catovic M. 🟨,
61', Nankishi A. ↓, Korkut E. ↑,
61', Herwerth M. ↓, Groiss A. ↑,
69', Malone R. 🟨,
72', Malone R. ↓, Fabisch J. ↑,
72', Gunther-Schmidt J. ↓, Tashchy B. ↑,
72', Weinhauer E. ↓, Ehlers J. ↑,
72', Seiffert M. ↓, Collins J. ↑,
75', Darvich N. ↓, Sankoh M. ↑,
75', Catovic M. ↓, Luers J. ↑,
84', Di Benedetto S. ↓, Olivier C. ↑,
90', Uhlmann E. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 10).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Stuttgart II may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Aue won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Aue won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Erzgebirge Aue - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.54%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
08.11.25	Verl - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Jahn Regensburg	4:3 ✺
26.10.25	Hoffenheim II - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1 ✺
17.10.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Waldhof Mannheim	0:2 ✺
05.10.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Rot-Weiß Essen	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TWTLT
- VfB Stuttgart II
German 3 Bundesliga
09.11.25	VfB Stuttgart II - Alemannia Aachen	1:3 ✺
01.11.25	Ulm 1846 - VfB Stuttgart II	1:3 ✺
25.10.25	Jahn Regensburg - VfB Stuttgart II	3:2 ✺
18.10.25	VfB Stuttgart II - Schweinfurt	3:0 ✺
05.10.25	Hoffenheim II - VfB Stuttgart II	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
05.04.25	Erzgebirge Aue - VfB Stuttgart II	2:1
27.10.24	VfB Stuttgart II - Erzgebirge Aue	0:1
30.01.16	Erzgebirge Aue - VfB Stuttgart II	1:0
22.08.15	VfB Stuttgart II - Erzgebirge Aue	1:2

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