Match Info

1. Lig - Round 20

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Yeni 4 Eylül Stadyumu (Sivas)

Referee: Kayatepe A. D. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Sivasspor		Erzurumspor

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.1	2.55	Watch
	2.63	3.01	2.63
	2.56	3.09	2.82	Watch
	2.63	2.9	2.63
	2.54	3.05	2.57
	2.62	3	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↓ (2.91)	3.03 ↓ (3.04)	2.64 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sivasspor
35.3%

Draw
30.1%

Erzurumspor
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

30%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

29.7%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sivasspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Erzurumspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sivasspor than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzurumspor than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Sivasspor - Erzurumspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Sivasspor will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sivasspor (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Sivasspor (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sivasspor (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bakirbas G. (G) 7. Paluli M. 3. Erdogan O. 5. Basyigit E. 58. Ciftci U. (C) 6. Yigiter O. 80. Celik C. 15. Fidan K. 8. Charisis C. 27. Ethemi V. 14. Boke T.	31. Orbanic M. (G) 53. Ovacikli O. 22. Yumlu M. 3. Kirtay Y. 15. Giorbelidze G. 6. Baiye B. 77. Keser B. 24. Crociata G. 8. Akgun S. 99. Fettahoglu M. 9. Yener H.
Substitutes
92. Ala S. 2. Appindangoye A. 72. Avramovski D. 53. Baynazoglu Y. (G) 20. Celik M. 77. Kefkir Y. 23. Kimpioka B. 12. Malle A. 88. Seker T. 26. Yildirim M.	11. Akpinar M. 1. Anapa E. (G) 23. Bayrak C. 35. Erdem E. 4. Gerxhaliu A. 16. Kabak A. 65. Rodriguez M. 17. Sarikaya S. 29. Sylla C. 2. Ulgen A.
Coaches
Altiparmak M.	Ozbalta S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', Yigiter O. 🟥,
41', 0 - 1, Keser B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Boke T. ↓, Kimpioka B. ↑,
46', Celik C. ↓, Malle A. ↑,
65', Yener H. ↓, Sylla C. ↑,
68', Giorbelidze G. 🟨,
74', Fettahoglu M. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
74', Akgun S. ↓, Akpinar M. ↑,
80', Charisis C. 🟨,
83', Ethemi V. ↓, Avramovski D. ↑,
83', Fidan K. ↓, Celik M. ↑,
83', Ovacikli O. ↓, Ulgen A. ↑,
84', Keser B. ↓, Sarikaya S. ↑,
90+2', Erdogan O. 🟨,
90+3', 0 - 2, Crociata G. ⚽, Rodriguez M. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 14 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ 1. Lig (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sivasspor won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Erzurumspor may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Sivasspor: Vural A. (Suspended)

There will not play in Erzurumspor: Kilinc K. (Inactive) Ozhan F. (Suspended) Sasi F. (Inactive) Sever I. (Suspended) Tozlu E. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Sivasspor won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 1.2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Sivasspor won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Sivasspor	8	1	5	2	9:11	-2	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sivasspor
Turkish First League
27.12.25	Sivasspor - Bandırmaspor	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	Igdirspor - Sivasspor	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Sivasspor - Çorum	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	İstanbulspor - Sivasspor	2:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
03.12.25	Sivasspor - Aliaga	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WTTLL
- Erzurumspor
Turkish First League
28.12.25	Erzurumspor - Çorum	1:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
23.12.25	Kocaelispor - Erzurumspor	3:1 ✺
Turkish First League
20.12.25	Bandırmaspor - Erzurumspor	0:2 ✺
14.12.25	Erzurumspor - Bodrumspor	2:2 ✺
07.12.25	Boluspor - Erzurumspor	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
09.08.25	Erzurumspor - Sivasspor	2:0
Turkish Super League
03.02.21	Sivasspor - Erzurumspor	0:0
20.09.20	Erzurumspor - Sivasspor	1:2
Club Friendly
08.09.19	Sivasspor - Erzurumspor	1:3
Turkish Super League
17.02.19	Erzurumspor - Sivasspor	4:2
16.09.18	Sivasspor - Erzurumspor	2:2

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