Match Info

Turkish Cup - Round 1

Date: 23 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadium (Izmit)

Referee: Saglam K. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	A Spor
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
Turkey	A Spor


	Kocaelispor		Erzurumspor

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.5	7
	1.33	4.69	9.03
	1.36	4.87	8.14	Watch
	1.36	4.2	7.5
	1.42	4.62	6.85	Watch
	1.36	4.75	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.69)	4.61 ↑ (3.8)	7.75 ↑ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kocaelispor
67.9%

Draw
20.2%

Erzurumspor
12%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

24.1%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

23.3%

20.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kocaelispor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kocaelispor's performance.

Erzurumspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Erzurumspor might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kocaelispor than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kocaelispor that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzurumspor than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Erzurumspor could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Kocaelispor - Erzurumspor Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH -1 - Kocaelispor (1.67) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Kocaelispor will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Kocaelispor will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Kocaelispor (votes: 13 - 92.9%). Erzurumspor (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Degirmenci G. (C) 2. Dijksteel A. 34. Syrota O. 5. Balogh B. 3. Cinan M. 98. Nonge J. 8. Keita H. 23. Yalcin S. 99. Rivas R. 9. Petkovic B. 17. Churlinov D.	1. Anapa E. (G) 2. Ulgen A. 3. Kirtay Y. 4. Gerxhaliu A. 25. Kara O. 55. Karaoglan Y. 35. Erdem E. 77. Keser B. 8. Akgun S. (C) 17. Sarikaya S. 29. Sylla C.
Substitutes
7. Agyei D. 27. Bilim E. 75. Bingol T. 18. Gedik F. 10. Linetty K. 94. Narin E. 22. Oguz A. 83. Oztasdelen S. (G) 11. Sagat A. 6. Smolcic H.	6. Baiye B. 28. Billor M. 24. Crociata G. 99. Fettahoglu M. 15. Giorbelidze G. 98. Moradaoglu K. (G) 53. Ovacikli O. 65. Rodriguez M. 10. Tozlu E. 22. Yumlu M.
Coaches
Inan S.	Ozbalta S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Churlinov D. ⚽, Rivas R. (A),
45', 2 - 0, Churlinov D. ⚽, Petkovic B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', Erdem E. 🟨,
53', 3 - 0, Nonge J. ⚽, Churlinov D. (A),
59', Keser B. ↓, Fettahoglu M. ↑,
59', Akgun S. ↓, Baiye B. ↑,
61', Churlinov D. ↓, Gedik F. ↑,
61', Keita H. ↓, Linetty K. ↑,
68', Kirtay Y. ↓, Ovacikli O. ↑,
71', Petkovic B. ↓, Agyei D. ↑,
71', Nonge J. ↓, Bilim E. ↑,
76', Balogh B. 🟨,
78', Gerxhaliu A. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
78', Karaoglan Y. ↓, Tozlu E. ↑,
83', Balogh B. ↓, Oguz A. ↑,
85', Linetty K. 🟨,
88', 3 - 1, Baiye B. ⚽, Ulgen A. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kocaelispor won 1.

Kocaelispor is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Erzurumspor's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Erzurumspor may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Kocaelispor is considered a favorite.

We predict that Kocaelispor will win today's game, with odds of 1.65.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Kocaelispor won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 0.8:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Kocaelispor won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kocaelispor
Turkish Super League
19.12.25	Kocaelispor - Antalyaspor	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Kocaelispor	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Kocaelispor - Kasımpaşa	0:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
03.12.25	Karacabey Belediyespor - Kocaelispor	1:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
28.11.25	Kocaelispor - Gençlerbirliği	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTTWW
- Erzurumspor
Turkish First League
20.12.25	Bandırmaspor - Erzurumspor	0:2 ✺
14.12.25	Erzurumspor - Bodrumspor	2:2 ✺
07.12.25	Boluspor - Erzurumspor	2:0 ✺
29.11.25	Erzurumspor - İstanbulspor	4:0 ✺
23.11.25	Igdirspor - Erzurumspor	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
01.02.25	Erzurumspor - Kocaelispor	1:1
23.08.24	Kocaelispor - Erzurumspor	1:0
02.03.24	Erzurumspor - Kocaelispor	0:0
06.10.23	Kocaelispor - Erzurumspor	1:1
01.05.22	Erzurumspor - Kocaelispor	1:0
10.12.21	Kocaelispor - Erzurumspor	2:0

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