Match Info

CAF Champions League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi (Radès)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Espérance ST		Al Ahly Cairo

	1	X	2
	1.91	2.9	4.2
	2.18	2.58	4.25
	2.1	2.64	4.6
	2.09	2.77	4.36	Watch
	2.05	2.7	4
	2.02	3	4.14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.58)	2.77 ↓ (2.98)	4.26 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Espérance ST
44.9%

Draw
33.4%

Al Ahly Cairo
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

31.1%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

30.8%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Espérance ST has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Espérance ST's performance.

Al Ahly Cairo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Al Ahly Cairo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Espérance ST than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Espérance ST that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al Ahly Cairo than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al Ahly Cairo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	62.5%	12.5%

Espérance ST - Al Ahly Cairo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Espérance ST will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Al Ahly will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Al Ahly (3.00) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Espérance ST (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Espérance ST (votes: 1 - 20%). Al Ahly (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Ben Said B. (G) 37. Drager M. 6. Jelassi H. 15. Tougai M. 20. Ben Hamida M. (C) 14. Ogbelu O. 8. Tka H. 10. Yan Sasse 39. Haj Ali M. 34. Diarra J. 22. Danho F.	31. Shobeir O. (G) 23. Dieng A. 30. Hany M. 21. Reyad H. 36. Kouka A. 17. Bencharki A. 20. Belammari Y. 6. Ibrahim Y. 7. Trezeguet (C) 25. Zizo 22. Ashour E.
Substitutes
2. Ben Ali M. 7. Boualia K. 29. Diakite A. 31. Jebali C. 23. Keita I. 21. Konate A. 1. Memmiche A. (G) 40. Msakni Y. 24. Rafia H.	13. Attia M. 5. Ben Romdhane M. 24. Eid A. 26. El Gazar A. 14. El Shahat H. 1. El Shenawy M. (G) 29. Mohamed T. 27. Otaka M. 4. Ramadan A.
Coaches
Beaumelle P.	Thorup J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Hany M. 🟨,
29', Ogbelu O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Drager M. ↓, Keita I. ↑,
46', Haj Ali M. ↓, Konate A. ↑,
63', Diarra J. ↓, Boualia K. ↑,
73', 1 - 0, Tougai M. (Penalty Awarded),
77', Bencharki A. ↓, Attia M. ↑,
77', Kouka A. ↓, Otaka M. ↑,
77', Jelassi H. ↓, Ben Ali M. ↑,
78', Ibrahim Y. 🟨,
82', Belammari Y. 🟨,
83', Yan Sasse ↓, Msakni Y. ↑,
87', Trezeguet ↓, El Shahat H. ↑,
87', Ashour E. ↓, Mohamed T. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Espérance ST won 0.

Espérance ST is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Al Ahly is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Al Ahly may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Espérance ST might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Espérance ST won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 9:24. (average 0.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Espérance ST won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.6:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Espérance ST
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
07.03.26	Espérance ST - Marsa	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Olympique Béja - Espérance ST	0:3 ✺
25.02.26	Métlaoui - Espérance ST	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Espérance ST - Stade Tunisien	1:0 ✺
17.02.26	Soliman - Espérance ST	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWTWW
- Al Ahly Cairo
Egyptian Premier League
09.03.26	Tala`ea El-Gaish - Al Ahly Cairo	2:1 ✺
05.03.26	El Mokawloon El Arab - Al Ahly Cairo	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Al Ahly Cairo - ZED	1:1 ✺
23.02.26	Smouha - Al Ahly Cairo	0:1 ✺
19.02.26	Al Ahly Cairo - El Gouna	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

CAF Champions League
25.05.24	Al Ahly Cairo - Espérance ST	1:0
18.05.24	Espérance ST - Al Ahly Cairo	0:0
19.05.23	Al Ahly Cairo - Espérance ST	1:0
12.05.23	Espérance ST - Al Ahly Cairo	0:3
26.06.21	Al Ahly Cairo - Espérance ST	3:0
19.06.21	Espérance ST - Al Ahly Cairo	0:1
09.11.18	Espérance ST - Al Ahly Cairo	3:0

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