Match Info

Persian Gulf Pro League - Round 21

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday

Location: Ghadir Stadium (Ahvaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Iran	Khozestan TV


	Esteghlal Khuzestan		Fajr Sepasi

	1	X	2
	2.58	2.92	2.72
	2.58	3.10	2.73	Watch
	2.54	2.91	2.68	Watch
	2.5	3	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.46)	2.98 ↑ (2.9)	2.7 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Esteghlal Khuzestan
35.7%

Draw
30.5%

Fajr Sepasi
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

30.8%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

31.9%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Esteghlal Khuzestan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Fajr Sepasi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Esteghlal Khuzestan than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fajr Sepasi than the current prediction. (-2%)

Esteghlal Khuzestan - Fajr Sepasi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kia M. (G) 77. Ahmadi M. M. 3. Abbasi A. 66. Mehdizadeh M. 11. Koohi A. 8. Bouhamdan H. 29. Latifi G. 16. Jalalivand A. 88. Zavari M. 13. Mousavi M. 21. Pourshijani A.	1. Gholamzadeh A. (G) 4. Jafarikia S. 3. Helichi A. 15. Mousavi M. 21. Azhir M. 8. Esmaeili F. 14. Niknafs Z. 66. Motlaghzadeh M. 90. Ashouri S. 19. Rostami Y. 78. Sharifi M.
Substitutes
55. Abolfazl J. (G) 4. Ahle S. M. 60. Baghaki S. D. 48. Fallahian M. R. 23. Farhadi A. 15. Karami A. 26. Khoshbakht M. 7. Rostami A. 6. Sharifi M. . Soleimani A. 34. Zergani J.	77. Babaei P. 9. Bozorg S. 31. Mohammadreza J. 98. Rezaei A. (G) 18. Rezaei M. 6. Rigi M. 30. Taher A. 12. Vosoughifard A. 7. Zare S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Bouhamdan H. 🟨,
10', Sharifi M. 🟨,
21', Koohi A. 🟨,
34', Esmaeili F. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sharifi M. ↓, Bozorg S. ↑,
46', Ashouri S. ↓, Rigi M. ↑,
58', 1 - 0, Jalalivand A. ⚽,
60', Esmaeili F. ↓, Babaei P. ↑,
60', Jafarikia S. ↓, Taher A. ↑,
62', Niknafs Z. ↓, Mohammadreza J. ↑,
73', Zavari M. 🟨,
73', Pourshijani A. ↓, Rostami A. ↑,
73', Zavari M. ↓, Farhadi A. ↑,
82', Jalalivand A. ↓, Sharifi M. ↑,
90+1', Mousavi M. ↓, Ahle S. M. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Esteghlal Khuzestan won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Esteghlal Khuzestan won 0 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Esteghlal Khuzestan won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Fajr Sepasi	6	1	4	1	3:3	0	7
15	Esteghlal Khuzestan	7	1	3	3	4:9	-5	6

Last Results with these Odds

Esteghlal Khuzestan - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 36.28%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Esteghlal Khuzestan
Iran Pro League
07.02.26	Mes Rafsanjan - Esteghlal Khuzestan	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Aluminium Arak	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Esteghlal - Esteghlal Khuzestan	1:0 ✺
23.01.26	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Paykan	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Shams Azar Qazvin - Esteghlal Khuzestan	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTLTT
- Fajr Sepasi
Iran Pro League
06.02.26	Fajr Sepasi - Tractor Sazi	2:1 ✺
02.02.26	Zob Ahan - Fajr Sepasi	2:1 ✺
28.01.26	Fajr Sepasi - Kheybar Khorramabad	2:1 ✺
23.01.26	Gol Gohar Sirjan - Fajr Sepasi	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Fajr Sepasi - Persepolis	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.7 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Iran Division 1
31.01.23	Fajr Sepasi - Esteghlal Khuzestan	1:1
07.09.22	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Fajr Sepasi	0:0
21.06.21	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Fajr Sepasi	0:0
07.02.21	Fajr Sepasi - Esteghlal Khuzestan	0:0
19.01.20	Fajr Sepasi - Esteghlal Khuzestan	0:0
27.08.19	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Fajr Sepasi	0:1
Iran Pro League
31.01.14	Esteghlal Khuzestan - Fajr Sepasi	0:0

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