Match Info

SPAIN: Copa del Rey - 1/32-finals

Date: 4 December 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez (Estepona)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Mexico	Sky Sport
Spain	M+ LaLiga 3
Usa	ESPN+


	Estepona		Leganés

	1	X	2
	6	3.2	1.75	Watch
	5.75	3.4	1.71
	5	3.3	1.72	Watch
	6.34	3.29	1.71
	5.89	3.23	1.71	Watch
	5	3.5	1.62
	5.5	3.52	1.72	Watch
	5	3.3	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.56 ↓ (7.3)	3.34 ↓ (3.65)	1.71 ↑ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estepona
16.9%

Draw
28.1%

Leganés
55%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.7%

25.3%

62%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.4%

24.7%

63.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estepona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Leganés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leganés might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estepona than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leganés than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leganés could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

Estepona - Leganés Predictions

Users Predictions: Leganés will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Liceras A. (G) 5. Marin A. 22. Caro J. 4. Mirapeix D. 27. Carrasco A. 7. Soria Blazquez R. 16. Marchena A. 8. Goma I. 3. Candelas A. 28. Orobio E. 9. Mesa R.	1. Soriano J. (G) 2. Altimira A. 4. Porozo J. 3. Saenz J. (C) 28. Bachiller I. 23. Munir El Haddadi 24. Chicco J. 8. Cisse S. 11. Cruz J. 21. Lopez R. 18. Haller S.
Substitutes
99. Aguilar Rosello P. 15. Aguilera J. 23. Castillo M. 19. Dago J. 14. Garcia J. 1. Gil D. (G) 24. Hidalgo A. 18. Lafarge R. 6. Lara F. 10. Rodriguez H. 11. Ruizma	36. Alvin (G) 13. Dmitrovic M. (G) 19. Garcia D. 27. Garcia N. 6. Gonzalez S. 20. Hernandez J. 10. Raba D. 7. Rodriguez O. 30. Rosell A. T. 12. Rosier V. 5. Tapia R.
Coaches
Riera O.	Jimenez B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Mesa R. ⚽,
41', Riera O. 🟨,
43', Carrasco A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Bachiller I. ↓, Hernandez J. ↑,
47', 1 - 1, Munir El Haddadi ⚽, Altimira A. (A),
60', 2 - 1, Orobio E. ⚽, Carrasco A. (A),
64', Orobio E. ↓, Rodriguez H. ↑,
72', Carrasco A. ↓, Aguilera J. ↑,
72', Mesa R. ↓, Dago J. ↑,
72', Chicco J. ↓, Raba D. ↑,
72', Lopez R. ↓, Garcia D. ↑,
72', Porozo J. ↓, Rodriguez O. ↑,
80', Cisse S. ↓, Tapia R. ↑,
80', Liceras A. 🟨,
82', 2 - 2, Hernandez J. ⚽, Garcia D. (A),
83', Soria Blazquez R. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
83', Marchena A. ↓, Lara F. ↑,
84', Hernandez J. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
97', Altimira A. ↓, Rosier V. ↑,
104', Rodriguez O. 🟨,
119', Candelas A. ↓, Lafarge R. ↑,
Penalties (4 - 5)
1, Rodriguez H. (Pen),
1, Rodriguez O. (Pen),
2, Dago J. (Pen),
2, Tapia R. (Pen),
3, Garcia J. (Pen),
3, Garcia D. (Pen),
4, Goma I. (Pen),
4, Munir El Haddadi (Pen),
5, Caro J. (Pen),
5, Cruz J. (Pen),

Preview

Estepona is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Leganés is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Leganés is certain favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Estepona
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
30.11.24	Estepona - Almeria B	0:1 ✺
24.11.24	Antoniano - Estepona	2:1 ✺
17.11.24	Estepona - La Unión	0:1 ✺
10.11.24	Granada B - Estepona	0:1 ✺
03.11.24	Estepona - Linares Deportivo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLWT
- CD Leganés
Spanish LaLiga
30.11.24	Deportivo Alavés - Leganés	1:1 ✺
24.11.24	Leganés - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
09.11.24	Leganés - Sevilla	1:0 ✺
02.11.24	Girona - Leganés	4:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
30.10.24	Ciudad de Lucena - Leganés	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TLWLW

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