Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 9

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio José Gomes (Amadora)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Estrela da Amadora		Rio Ave

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.2	2.95	Watch
	2.48	3.05	2.92	Watch
	2.69	3.15	2.79
	1.56	3.63	6.70	Watch
	2.51	3.08	2.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.55)	3.22 ↑ (3.2)	3.65 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estrela da Amadora
42.5%

Draw
30.6%

Rio Ave
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

29.3%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

29.1%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estrela da Amadora's performance.

Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rio Ave might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estrela da Amadora that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rio Ave could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Estrela da Amadora - Rio Ave Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 3 - 20%). Rio Ave will win (votes: 9 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rio Ave: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Rio Ave (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Rio Ave (1.48) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Rio Ave (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Ribeiro R. (G) 79. Chernev A. 30. Luan Patrick 83. Otavio 17. Encada J. 19. Moreira P. 6. Ngom O. 55. Cabral S. 99. Marcus A. 98. Kikas (C) 18. Meireles J.	1. Miszta C. (G) 23. Petrasso F. 32. Brabec J. 4. Panzo J. 17. Vrousai M. (C) 10. Aguilera Zamora B. 5. Ntoi A. 3. Athanasiou N. 11. Andre Luiz 9. Clayton 18. Spikic D.
Substitutes
7. Antonetti L. 89. Gastao J. 22. Grilo D. (G) 21. Montoia G. 3. Ni 8. Robinho 9. Rodrigo Pinho 63. Sola A. 10. Stoica I.	22. Chamorro K. (G) 2. da Silva Moreira E. 21. Graca J. 28. Gual M. 54. Liavas G. 63. Lomboto J. 44. Nikitscher T. 19. Papakanellos A. 80. Pohlmann O.
Coaches
Silva L.	Sylaidopoulos S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Aguilera Zamora B. 🟨,
24', Ngom O. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Moreira P. ⚽, Meireles J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Aguilera Zamora B. ↓, Pohlmann O. ↑,
46', Petrasso F. ↓, Liavas G. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Andre Luiz ⚽, Clayton (A),
57', Otavio ↓, Montoia G. ↑,
67', Meireles J. ↓, Robinho ↑,
67', Spikic D. ↓, Papakanellos A. ↑,
67', Marcus A. ↓, Stoica I. ↑,
72', 1 - 2, Vrousai M. ⚽, Ntoi A. (A),
74', Encada J. ↓, Gastao J. ↑,
74', Moreira P. ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,
74', Panzo J. 🟨,
75', Miszta C. 🟨,
82', Clayton ↓, Gual M. ↑,
85', Robinho 🟨,
85', Athanasiou N. 🟨,
85', Pohlmann O. 🟨,
90', Andre Luiz ↓, Lomboto J. ↑,
90+3', Cabral S. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 1.

Estrela has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Rio Ave has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Estrela: Ni (Foot Injury) Semeu (Injury)

There will not play in Rio Ave: Bakoulas T. (Knee Injury) Clayton (Red Card) Richards O. (Injury)

There are questionable in Estrela: Alisson Souza (Inactive) Jovane (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Estrela won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:7. (average 1.7:2.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Estrela da Amadora - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 36.86%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrela da Amadora
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Alpendorada - Estrela da Amadora	3:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.10.25	Gil Vicente - Estrela da Amadora	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Estrela da Amadora - AVS	3:0 ✺
21.09.25	Tondela - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
14.09.25	Estrela da Amadora - Vitoria Guimarães	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWTL
- Rio Ave FC
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Sintrense - Rio Ave	3:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Rio Ave - Tondela	3:0 ✺
28.09.25	Famalicão - Rio Ave	0:0 ✺
23.09.25	Benfica - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
19.09.25	Rio Ave - Porto	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.7 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
05.05.25	Rio Ave - Estrela da Amadora	2:0
23.12.24	Estrela da Amadora - Rio Ave	1:0
14.04.24	Estrela da Amadora - Rio Ave	2:2
02.12.23	Rio Ave - Estrela da Amadora	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
14.02.22	Rio Ave - Estrela da Amadora	1:0
10.09.21	Estrela da Amadora - Rio Ave	2:5

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