Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 6

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Referee: Correia G. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Tondela		Estrela da Amadora

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.5	Watch
	2.28	2.98	3.35	Watch
	2.31	3.15	3.57
	2.23	2.67	4.16	Watch
	2.3	3.24	3.24	Watch
	2.35	3.1	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.27)	3.02 ↓ (3.3)	3.51 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela
41.6%

Draw
31.4%

Estrela da Amadora
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	75%	12.5%

Tondela - Estrela da Amadora Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Estrela will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - draw (1.61) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto (C) 4. Marques C. 20. Medina B. 21. Vita R. 32. Rodriguez J. 10. Hodge J. 7. Pedro Maranhao 16. Rony Lopes 17. Cavaleiro I. 29. Siebatcheu J.	40. Ribeiro R. (G) 14. Bernardo Schappo 30. Luan Patrick 79. Chernev A. 55. Cabral S. 19. Moreira P. 99. Marcus A. 66. Ryan Carlos 10. Stoica I. 98. Kikas (C) 18. Meireles J.
Substitutes
5. Afonso J. 30. Canizares L. (G) 79. Felix H. 48. Manso T. 60. Maviram E. 11. Rodriguez Y. 15. Sithole S. 8. Tavares H. 67. Yarlen	80. Alisson Souza 5. Drame I. 17. Encada J. 13. Godoy A. 21. Montoia G. 6. Ngom O. 1. Pinto D. (G) 9. Rodrigo Pinho 63. Sola A.
Coaches
Vieira I.	Silva L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Moreira P. 🟨,
45+1', Siebatcheu J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Medina B. 🟨,
53', Vita R. 🟨,
58', Cabral S. 🟨,
59', Hodge J. ↓, Maviram E. ↑,
59', Vita R. ↓, Felix H. ↑,
60', Ryan Carlos ↓, Montoia G. ↑,
63', Kikas ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,
63', Stoica I. ↓, Alisson Souza ↑,
68', Alisson Souza 🟨,
70', Bebeto ↓, Manso T. ↑,
70', Rony Lopes ↓, Sithole S. ↑,
77', Maviram E. 🟨,
79', Moreira P. ↓, Ngom O. ↑,
79', Cabral S. ↓, Encada J. ↑,
83', Siebatcheu J. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
87', Tavares H. 🟥,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 15).

Tondela is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Estrela is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Tondela may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tondela is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There are questionable in Tondela: Cicero (Injury)

There are questionable in Estrela: Jovane (Inactive) Montoia G. (Injury) Ngom O. (Inactive) Nilton (Foot Injury) Semeu (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Tondela won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
12.09.25	Alverca - Tondela	1:0 ✺
31.08.25	Tondela - Estoril Praia	2:2 ✺
23.08.25	Benfica - Tondela	3:0 ✺
16.08.25	Tondela - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
10.08.25	Braga - Tondela	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLL
- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
14.09.25	Estrela da Amadora - Vitoria Guimarães	0:2 ✺
31.08.25	Santa Clara - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
25.08.25	Estrela da Amadora - Alverca	2:2 ✺
16.08.25	Estrela da Amadora - Benfica	0:1 ✺
11.08.25	Estoril Praia - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
26.02.23	Estrela da Amadora - Tondela	0:0
05.09.22	Tondela - Estrela da Amadora	1:1

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