Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 7

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio José Gomes (Amadora)

Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Estrela da Amadora		AVS

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.18	3.05	3.55	Watch
	2.27	3.3	3.55
	1.06	11.07	35.58	Watch
	2.14	3.24	3.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.86)	4.75 ↑ (3.55)	9.98 ↑ (3.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Estrela da Amadora
62.3%

Draw
25.6%

AVS
12.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

26.2%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

21.8%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estrela da Amadora's performance.

AVS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AVS might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-20.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estrela da Amadora that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AVS than the current prediction. (+16.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AVS could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	18.2%	18.2%

Estrela da Amadora - AVS Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). AVS will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estrela: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Estrela (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Estrela (3.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Estrela (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Ribeiro R. (G) 14. Bernardo Schappo 30. Luan Patrick 79. Chernev A. 21. Montoia G. 18. Meireles J. 19. Moreira P. 55. Cabral S. 10. Stoica I. 98. Kikas (C) 99. Marcus A.	93. Simao (G) 2. Spencer D. 42. Devenish C. 3. Paulo Vitor 24. Kiki (C) 27. Algobia A. 15. Grau J. 11. Akinsola T. 8. Pedro Lima 10. Barbosa R. 7. Tomane
Substitutes
7. Antonetti L. 5. Drame I. 17. Encada J. 89. Gastao J. 22. Grilo D. (G) 6. Ngom O. 9. Rodrigo Pinho 66. Ryan Carlos 63. Sola A.	4. Bane S. 20. Duarte D. 9. Escobar J. 19. Galletto T. 99. Joao Goncalves (G) 17. Lourenco B. 23. Mendonca G. 18. Nene 12. Rivas D.
Coaches
Silva L.	Sousa J. P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Kikas ⚽, Marcus A. (A),
24', 2 - 0, Stoica I. ⚽, Cabral S. (A),
45+2', 3 - 0, Kikas ⚽, Cabral S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Devenish C. ↓, Bane S. ↑,
46', Algobia A. ↓, Mendonca G. ↑,
59', Barbosa R. 🟨,
61', Stoica I. ↓, Ngom O. ↑,
62', Kiki ↓, Rivas D. ↑,
62', Pedro Lima ↓, Duarte D. ↑,
77', Paulo Vitor 🟥,
77', Meireles J. ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,
78', Barbosa R. ↓, Galletto T. ↑,
84', Luan Patrick 🟨,
86', Ngom O. 🟨,
86', Moreira P. ↓, Sola A. ↑,
86', Cabral S. ↓, Encada J. ↑,
87', Chernev A. ↓, Drame I. ↑,
90+3', Grau J. 🟨,
90+3', Ngom O. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Recent form of Estrela has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

AVS has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Estrela will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Estrela: Ni (Injury) Robinho (Injury)

There will not play in AVS: Molina G. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Estrela: Jovane (Inactive) Nilton (Foot Injury) Semeu (Injury) Stoica I. (Injury)

There are questionable in AVS: Lourenco B. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Estrela won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
21.09.25	Tondela - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
14.09.25	Estrela da Amadora - Vitoria Guimarães	0:2 ✺
31.08.25	Santa Clara - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
25.08.25	Estrela da Amadora - Alverca	2:2 ✺
16.08.25	Estrela da Amadora - Benfica	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TLTTL
- AVS Futebol SAD
Liga Portugal
20.09.25	AVS - Benfica	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Estoril Praia - AVS	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	AVS - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	Braga - AVS	2:2 ✺
15.08.25	AVS - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
11.05.25	Estrela da Amadora - AVS	0:1
28.12.24	AVS - Estrela da Amadora	1:1

Upcoming Matches