Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 8

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos (Barcelos)

Referee: Torres M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Gil Vicente		Estrela da Amadora

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.8	5.5	Watch
	1.65	3.5	5.75
	1.62	3.7	5.4
	1.75	3.59	5.5
	1.78	3.31	5.02	Watch
				Watch
	1.64	3.64	5.51	Watch
	1.65	3.75	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.88)	3.61 ↑ (3.27)	5.47 ↑ (4.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gil Vicente
56.6%

Draw
26.1%

Estrela da Amadora
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

29%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

28.4%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gil Vicente's performance.

Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gil Vicente that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.7%	25%	6.2%

Gil Vicente - Estrela da Amadora Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Gil Vicente will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Estrela will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gil Vicente (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Estrela (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Gil Vicente (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Estrela (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 39. Buatu J. 4. Elimbi M. 3. Konan G. 5. Caseres F. 10. Esteves L. 77. Murilo de Souza 95. Garcia S. 11. Fernandes J. 9. Pablo	40. Ribeiro R. (G) 14. Bernardo Schappo 30. Luan Patrick 79. Chernev A. 21. Montoia G. 18. Meireles J. 19. Moreira P. 55. Cabral S. 10. Stoica I. 9. Rodrigo Pinho 98. Kikas (C)
Substitutes
17. Bermejo 48. Espigares A. 32. Fernandez M. 99. Figueira Daniel (G) 82. Maia G. 27. Moreira A. 45. Mutombo J. 89. Varela G. 6. Ze Carlos	7. Antonetti L. 5. Drame I. 17. Encada J. 13. Godoy A. 87. Pedro S. 1. Pinto D. (G) 8. Robinho 66. Ryan Carlos 63. Sola A.
Coaches
Peixoto C.	Silva L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
24', Bernardo Schappo 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Pablo ⚽,
41', Chernev A. 🟨,
41', 2 - 0, Pablo (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Stoica I. ↓, Encada J. ↑,
55', da Silva Ventura A. 🟥,
59', Montoia G. ↓, Ryan Carlos ↑,
59', Chernev A. ↓, Godoy A. ↑,
60', Murilo de Souza ↓, Figueira Daniel ↑,
60', Fernandes J. ↓, Mutombo J. ↑,
67', Garcia S. ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
67', Pablo ↓, Varela G. ↑,
72', Rodrigo Pinho ↓, Antonetti L. ↑,
84', Konan G. ↓, Espigares A. ↑,
84', Moreira P. ↓, Robinho ↑,
87', Figueira Daniel 🟨,
89', Ribeiro R. 🟨,
90', Varela G. (Pen),
90+1', Esteves L. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 and 12).

Gil Vicente is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Estrela has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Estrela may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Gil Vicente is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M. (Inactive) Carlos Eduardo (Inactive) Hevertton S. (Red Card) Toure T. (Inactive)

There will not play in Estrela: Ngom O. (Red Card) Robinho (Injury)

There are questionable in Estrela: Jovane (Inactive) Ni (Injury) Nilton (Foot Injury) Semeu (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Gil Vicente won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
26.09.25	Benfica - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Braga - Gil Vicente	0:1 ✺
29.08.25	Gil Vicente - Moreirense	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Famalicão - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.2 LWWWT
- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
27.09.25	Estrela da Amadora - AVS	3:0 ✺
21.09.25	Tondela - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
14.09.25	Estrela da Amadora - Vitoria Guimarães	0:2 ✺
31.08.25	Santa Clara - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
25.08.25	Estrela da Amadora - Alverca	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
07.03.25	Estrela da Amadora - Gil Vicente	1:1
05.10.24	Gil Vicente - Estrela da Amadora	3:0
18.05.24	Estrela da Amadora - Gil Vicente	1:0
14.01.24	Gil Vicente - Estrela da Amadora	1:1

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