Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 15

Date: 8 January 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Gomes (Amadora)

Referee: Godinho L. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Estrela da Amadora		Trofense

	1	X	2
	1.45	3.75	6.5
	1.44	4	6.25
	1.45	4.1	6.25
	1.46	4.1	6.6
	1.45	4.52	7.92
	1.42	3.8	7
	1.41	4.3	6.85
	1.44	4	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.81)	4.07 ↑ (3.3)	6.72 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estrela da Amadora
63.8%

Draw
22.6%

Trofense
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

27.5%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

22.4%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estrela da Amadora's performance.

Trofense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Trofense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-23.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estrela da Amadora that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Trofense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.1%	14.8%	11.1%

Estrela da Amadora - Trofense Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%). Trofense will win (votes: 3 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 14.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estrela: 57.6% – 90.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 4 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

Estrela is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Trofense has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Estrela is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Estrela won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Estrela won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrela da Amadora
Portuguese Liga 2
31.12.22	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
17.12.22	Estrela da Amadora - Penafiel	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
07.12.22	Estrela da Amadora - Niort	1:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
27.11.22	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	4:2 ✺
20.11.22	Estrela da Amadora - Benfica	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTLLL
- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 2
30.12.22	Trofense - Torreense	0:1 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
11.12.22	Casa Pia - Trofense	1:0 ✺
03.12.22	Trofense - Paços de Ferreira	1:1 ✺
26.11.22	Braga - Trofense	3:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
16.11.22	Farense - Trofense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
16.07.22	Estrela da Amadora - Trofense	1:0
Portuguese Liga 2
23.01.22	Estrela da Amadora - Trofense	2:0
13.08.21	Trofense - Estrela da Amadora	0:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
06.06.21	Estrela da Amadora - Trofense	0:0

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