Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 9

Date: 16 November 2022, Wednesday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Referee: Correia G. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Farense		Trofense

	1	X	2
	1.25	4.75	11	Watch
	1.28	5	8.75
	1.3	4.6	9
	1.29	5	9.4
	1.31	5.43	11.18
	1.29	4.4	9.5
	1.26	5.2	9.8
	1.28	4.9	9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.52)	4.91 ↑ (3.8)	9.7 ↑ (5.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
71.8%

Draw
18.7%

Trofense
9.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.7%

23.8%

16.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.7%

22.7%

15.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Farense's performance.

Trofense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Trofense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Farense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Trofense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Farense - Trofense Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Farense will win (votes: 30 - 75%). Trofense will win (votes: 5 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Farense: 61.6% – 88.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Farense won 3.

Recent matches Farense is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Trofense has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Trofense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Farense is indisputable favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Farense won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Farense won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
12.11.22	Farense - Feirense	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
09.11.22	Leixões - Farense	3:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
05.11.22	Penafiel - Farense	0:2 ✺
30.10.22	Farense - Oliveirense	2:0 ✺
23.10.22	Moreirense - Farense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLWWL
- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 2
13.11.22	Académico de Viseu - Trofense	3:1 ✺
07.11.22	Trofense - Benfica B	1:2 ✺
30.10.22	Tondela - Trofense	0:0 ✺
23.10.22	Trofense - Porto B	0:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
15.10.22	Trofense - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
06.03.22	Trofense - Farense	1:1
13.11.21	Farense - Trofense	2:0
15.04.15	Trofense - Farense	0:1
30.11.14	Farense - Trofense	1:1
04.05.14	Farense - Trofense	1:0
11.12.13	Trofense - Farense	1:0

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