Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 17

Date: 22 January 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Gomes (Amadora)

Referee: Martins T. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Estrela da Amadora		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.2
	2.1	3.1	3.1
	2.12	3.05	3.35
	2.16	3.25	3.15
	2.23	3.3	3.55
	2.1	3	3.3
	2.09	3.28	3.3
	2.14	3.2	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.66)	3.19 ↑ (3.12)	3.26 ↑ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Estrela da Amadora
43%

Draw
28.8%

Penafiel
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

29.3%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

28.7%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estrela da Amadora's performance.

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Penafiel might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estrela da Amadora that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Penafiel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Estrela da Amadora - Penafiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Penafiel will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 5 and 8).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Penafiel could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Estrela will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Estrela won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Estrela won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrela da Amadora
Portuguese Liga 2
15.01.23	Nacional - Estrela da Amadora	0:1 ✺
08.01.23	Estrela da Amadora - Trofense	2:2 ✺
31.12.22	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
17.12.22	Estrela da Amadora - Penafiel	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
07.12.22	Estrela da Amadora - Niort	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WTTTL
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
14.01.23	Penafiel - Torreense	0:0 ✺
09.01.23	Tondela - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
31.12.22	Penafiel - Académico de Viseu	1:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
17.12.22	Estrela da Amadora - Penafiel	1:1 ✺
26.11.22	Benfica - Penafiel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese League Cup
17.12.22	Estrela da Amadora - Penafiel	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
30.04.22	Estrela da Amadora - Penafiel	0:2
19.12.21	Penafiel - Estrela da Amadora	0:2
Portuguese League Cup
01.08.21	Estrela da Amadora - Penafiel	0:1

Upcoming Matches