Match Info

Primera C - Round 13

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Estrella del Sur		Lugano

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.82	3.05
	2	2.73	3.87
	2.09	2.72	4.04	Watch
	2.1	2.63	3.9
	2.3	2.85	3.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.3)	2.75 ↓ (2.84)	3.61 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estrella del Sur
41.8%

Draw
33%

Lugano
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

31.9%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

32.1%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estrella del Sur has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrella del Sur than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Estrella del Sur - Lugano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Lopez R. ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, Coselli M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
82', 1 - 2, Urruchua G. ⚽,
87', 2 - 2, Maidana D. ⚽,
90+2', 3 - 2, Campuzano C. ⚽,
90+8', Poblet K. 🟥,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera C (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera C (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ))

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Estrella del Sur could have a small edge in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Lugano - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 28.71%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estrella del Sur de Alejandro Korn
Argentinian Primera C
16.05.26	Deportivo Yupanqui - Estrella del Sur	0:0 ✺
09.05.26	Estrella del Sur - Berazategui	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	Victoriano Arenas - Estrella del Sur	3:0 ✺
26.04.26	Estrella del Sur - Centro Español	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Estrella del Sur - Cañuelas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TTLWL
- CA Lugano
Argentinian Primera C
16.05.26	Leones de Rosario - Lugano	2:2 ✺
10.05.26	Lugano - Puerto Nuevo	3:0 ✺
03.05.26	Berazategui - Lugano	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Lugano - Leandro N. Alem	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Club Luján - Lugano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TWLTT

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