Match Info

Primera C - Round 11

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday


	Lugano		Puerto Nuevo

	1	X	2
	2.02	2.98	3.6
	1.98	2.9	3.64
	1.32	4.79	8.17	Watch
	2.05	2.8	3.6
	2.04	2.94	3.69
	2.04	2.96	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.05)	3.23 ↑ (2.9)	4.4 ↑ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
49.4%

Draw
29.2%

Puerto Nuevo
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

31.3%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

31%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugano's performance.

Puerto Nuevo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puerto Nuevo than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Lugano - Puerto Nuevo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Urruchua G. ⚽,
26', 2 - 0, Gomez A. N. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
82', 3 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 2.

Lugano is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Puerto Nuevo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Lugano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Lugano has had a series of away games.

Lugano is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:12. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Lugano won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:6. (average 1.3:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Puerto Nuevo - the odds 3.72 are the expected chance of winning is 24.4%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lugano
Argentinian Primera C
03.05.26	Berazategui - Lugano	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Lugano - Leandro N. Alem	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Club Luján - Lugano	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Victoriano Arenas - Lugano	0:0 ✺
08.04.26	Sportivo Barracas - Lugano	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTTTL
- CA Puerto Nuevo
Argentinian Primera C
03.05.26	Puerto Nuevo - Leandro N. Alem	1:4 ✺
26.04.26	Defensores de Cambaceres - Puerto Nuevo	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Deportivo Yupanqui - Puerto Nuevo	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Puerto Nuevo - Juventud Unida de San Miguel	2:2 ✺
29.03.26	Puerto Nuevo - Argentino de Rosario	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera C
03.08.25	Lugano - Puerto Nuevo	1:0
19.04.25	Puerto Nuevo - Lugano	1:0
09.11.24	Puerto Nuevo - Lugano	0:0
08.06.24	Lugano - Puerto Nuevo	0:4
Argentinian Primera D
13.10.21	Lugano - Puerto Nuevo	3:2
28.06.21	Puerto Nuevo - Lugano	5:2

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