Match Info

ARGENTINA: LIGA PROFESIONAL - ROUND 11

Date: 12 April 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi (La Plata)

Referee: Perez Y. (Arg)


	Estudiantes La Plata		Atlético Tucumán

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.25	5	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4.33
	1.91	3.45	4.2
	1.84	3.46	4.95
	1.81	3.4	4.75	Watch
	1.83	3.35	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.27)	3.37 ↑ (2.88)	4.62 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estudiantes La Plata
51.4%

Draw
28.1%

Atlético Tucumán
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

32.6%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

32.4%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estudiantes La Plata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estudiantes La Plata's performance.

Atlético Tucumán has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Tucumán might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estudiantes La Plata than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estudiantes La Plata that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Tucumán than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Tucumán could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81%	14.3%	4.8%

Estudiantes La Plata - Atlético Tucumán Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Estudiantes will win (votes: 17 - 81%). Atlético Tucumán will win (votes: 1 - 4.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estudiantes: 64.2% – 97.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Estudiantes has the most likely position - 9 (5.58%), project points - 39, currently - 14, a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 36, very small importance 2, small match rating 19. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Estudiantes won 0.

Estudiantes is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Atlético Tucumán is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Estudiantes could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Estudiantes is a favorite.

There will not play in Estudiantes: Piatti P. (Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Estudiantes won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Estudiantes won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estudiantes La Plata
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.04.23	Independiente - Estudiantes La Plata	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.04.23	Oriente Petrolero - Estudiantes La Plata	0:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
31.03.23	Estudiantes La Plata - Newells Old Boys	3:0 ✺
19.03.23	Gimnasia La Plata - Estudiantes La Plata	2:1 ✺
12.03.23	Estudiantes La Plata - Huracán Buenos Aires	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWWLW
- Atlético Tucumán
Argentinian Liga Profesional
08.04.23	Atlético Tucumán - San Lorenzo	1:3 ✺
02.04.23	Colón - Atlético Tucumán	0:0 ✺
18.03.23	Atlético Tucumán - Barracas Central	1:1 ✺
10.03.23	Instituto Córdoba - Atlético Tucumán	1:1 ✺
04.03.23	Atlético Tucumán - Banfield	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
15.01.23	Atlético Tucumán - Estudiantes La Plata	2:1 pen.
Argentinian Liga Profesional
25.09.22	Atlético Tucumán - Estudiantes La Plata	3:1
20.10.21	Estudiantes La Plata - Atlético Tucumán	1:1
30.11.19	Estudiantes La Plata - Atlético Tucumán	1:1
21.10.18	Estudiantes La Plata - Atlético Tucumán	1:1
26.11.17	Estudiantes La Plata - Atlético Tucumán	1:0
18.09.16	Atlético Tucumán - Estudiantes La Plata	0:2

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