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Current Win Probability
Estudiantes de Mérida 52.4%
Draw 26.4%
Caracas 21.2%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
42.8%
27.3%
29.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43.8%
28%
29.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estudiantes de Mérida has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estudiantes de Mérida's performance.
Caracas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Caracas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estudiantes de Mérida than the current prediction. (-8.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estudiantes de Mérida that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caracas than the current prediction. (+7.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Caracas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Estudiantes de Mérida - Caracas Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Chacon R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
86', 1 - 1, Larotonda C. ⚽,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, Ramirez Holguin W. S. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Vegas M. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Maldonado M. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Larotonda C. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Mejias Diego (Penalty Awarded),
3, Yendis J. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Matheus D. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Marquez M. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estudiantes Mérida won 2.
In recent outings, Estudiantes Mérida has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Caracas shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Estudiantes Mérida could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Estudiantes Mérida is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Estudiantes Mérida has recorded 3 wins, 10 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 22:33 (averaging 1.1:1.7 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Estudiantes Mérida against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 7 draws, and 2 losses, with 9:11 goals (averaging 0.9:1.1 per game).
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