Match Info

Copa Venezuela - Round 3

Date: 18 June 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Hermanos Ghersi Paez (Maracay)


	Aragua		Caracas

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.25	1.78
	4.65	3.46	1.66
				Watch
	3.97	3.97	1.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.17 ↑ (3.8)	3.56 ↑ (3.21)	1.72 ↓ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aragua
21.8%

Draw
25.5%

Caracas
52.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.5%

27.8%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.5%

27.8%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aragua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Caracas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aragua than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caracas than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Aragua - Caracas Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Caracas (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Caracas will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Tegues D. ⚽,
44', Gutierez F. 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
71', 1 - 1, Rondon A. (Pen),
89', 2 - 1, Pinto J. ⚽,
90+2', 🟥,
90+3', Covea M. 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aragua won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Caracas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Caracas is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aragua won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:21. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Aragua won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 1.4:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aragua FC
Venezuelan Segunda Division
15.06.25	Aragua - Angostura	4:1 ✺
Copa Venezuela
11.06.25	Deportivo Miranda - Aragua	3:0 ✺
Venezuelan Segunda Division
08.06.25	Bolivar - Aragua	1:1 ✺
Copa Venezuela
04.06.25	Aragua - Dynamo Puerto	1:3 ✺
Venezuelan Segunda Division
01.06.25	Aragua - Dynamo Puerto	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLTLT
- Caracas FC
Copa Venezuela
11.06.25	Caracas - Dynamo Puerto	2:0 ✺
04.06.25	Deportivo Miranda - Caracas	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.05.25	Caracas - Deportes Iquique	2:1 ✺
15.05.25	Atlético Mineiro - Caracas	3:1 ✺
08.05.25	Cienciano - Caracas	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Venezuelan Primera Division
18.09.22	Aragua - Caracas	4:2
26.02.22	Caracas - Aragua	1:0
08.12.20	Aragua - Caracas	0:0
12.11.20	Caracas - Aragua	0:1
06.03.20	Aragua - Caracas	0:1
22.11.19	Caracas - Aragua	2:0
18.11.19	Aragua - Caracas	3:1

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