Match Info

Copa Venezuela - Round 6

Date: 14 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished


	Aragua		Caracas

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.50	5.00
	1.55	3.45	5.70
	1.61	3.64	5.61
	1.59	3.45	5.8	Watch
	1.55	3.30	5.55
	1.57	3.32	5.86
	1.56	3.45	5.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (2.84)	3.44 ↑ (3.32)	5.56 ↑ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aragua
57.5%

Draw
26.2%

Caracas
16.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.4%

27.7%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

27%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aragua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+25.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aragua's performance.

Caracas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-23.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Caracas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aragua than the current prediction. (-24.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aragua that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caracas than the current prediction. (+22.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Caracas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Aragua - Caracas Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Aragua will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Aragua (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Aragua (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Aragua (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Gonzalez S. ⚽,
24', 1 - 1, Laya E. ⚽,
45', Villafraz J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', 2 - 1, Garcia A. ⚽,
71', 3 - 1, Chaverra Palacios J. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aragua won 2.

Aragua is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Caracas have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Aragua carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Aragua has recorded 9 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:24 (averaging 1.1:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Aragua against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 16:9 goals (averaging 1.6:0.9 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aragua FC
Venezuelan Segunda Division
11.10.26	Aragua - Mineros de Guayana	3:0 ✺
Copa Venezuela
07.10.26	Barquisimeto - Aragua	1:4 ✺
Venezuelan Segunda Division
27.09.26	Aragua - Atletico Avila	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Bolivar - Aragua	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Aragua - Deportivo Miranda	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWTW
- Caracas FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
11.10.26	Caracas - Zamora	4:1 ✺
Copa Venezuela
07.10.26	Caracas - Yaracuyanos	1:0 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
20.09.26	Academia Anzoátegui - Caracas	1:1 ✺
16.09.26	Metropolitanos - Caracas	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Caracas - Monagas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Venezuela
24.06.26	Caracas - Aragua	1:1
25.06.25	Caracas - Aragua	4:0
18.06.25	Aragua - Caracas	2:1
Venezuelan Primera Division
18.09.22	Aragua - Caracas	4:2
26.02.22	Caracas - Aragua	1:0
08.12.20	Aragua - Caracas	0:0
12.11.20	Caracas - Aragua	0:1

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