Match Info

League One - Round 19

Date: 9 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)

Referee: Finnie W. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Exeter City		AFC Wimbledon

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.3	3.6
	2.02	3.35	3.55
	2.06	3.38	3.82
	2.02	3.46	3.56	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.5
	2.11	3.28	3.46	Watch
	2.08	3.25	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.32)	3.3 ↑ (3.2)	3.58 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
45.7%

Draw
28.3%

AFC Wimbledon
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

28.2%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

28%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Exeter City's performance.

AFC Wimbledon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AFC Wimbledon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Exeter City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AFC Wimbledon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	21.4%	14.3%

Exeter City - AFC Wimbledon Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Wimbledon will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Exeter: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Wimbledon (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Whitworth J. (G) 26. Sweeney P. (C) 5. Fitzwater J. 15. Yfeko J. 14. Niskanen I. 31. Doyle-Hayes J. 34. Oakes L. 2. McMillan J. 10. Aitchison J. 17. Higgins A. 9. Wareham J.	1. Bishop N. (G) 2. Asiimwe N. 31. Lewis J. 15. Bauer P. 26. Harbottle R. 3. Seddon S. 12. Smith A. 4. Reeves J. (C) 11. Browne M. 7. Orsi-Dadomo D. 9. Bugiel O.
Substitutes
6. Brierley E. 23. Bycroft J. (G) 19. Cox S. 27. Magennis J. 29. McDonald K. 4. Turns E. 20. Woodhouse L.	34. Hedges H. 21. Hippolyte M. 8. Maycock C. 20. McDonnell J. (G) 30. Nkeng R. 33. Ogundere I.
Coaches
Caldwell G.	Jackson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Fitzwater J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Oakes L. ↓, Brierley E. ↑,
68', Yfeko J. 🟨,
70', Wareham J. ↓, Magennis J. ↑,
71', Yfeko J. ↓, Woodhouse L. ↑,
71', Higgins A. ↓, Cox S. ↑,
76', Orsi-Dadomo D. ↓, Maycock C. ↑,
77', Seddon S. ↓, Ogundere I. ↑,
80', 1 - 0, McMillan J. ⚽, Niskanen I. (A),
82', Doyle-Hayes J. ↓, McDonald K. ↑,
85', Harbottle R. ↓, Nkeng R. ↑,
85', Reeves J. ↓, Hippolyte M. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Wimbledon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Exeter: Borges P. (Knee Injury) Mendes C. (Muscle Injury) Rydel R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Wimbledon: Johnson R. (Yellow Cards) Stevens M. (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 1.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Exeter won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.8:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Exeter City - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 38.93%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

AFC Wimbledon - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 32.84%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English FA Cup
06.12.25	Exeter City - Wycombe Wanderers	4:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Luton Town - Exeter City	4:0 ✺
English League One
29.11.25	Bradford City - Exeter City	1:0 ✺
15.11.25	Leyton Orient - Exeter City	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Newport County - Exeter City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLLLW
- AFC Wimbledon
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Cardiff City - AFC Wimbledon	1:5 ✺
English League One
29.11.25	Huddersfield Town - AFC Wimbledon	3:3 ✺
22.11.25	AFC Wimbledon - Wigan Athletic	1:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Bromley - AFC Wimbledon	1:2 ✺
English League One
08.11.25	Peterborough United - AFC Wimbledon	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
28.12.15	Exeter City - AFC Wimbledon	0:2
29.08.15	AFC Wimbledon - Exeter City	2:1
14.03.15	Exeter City - AFC Wimbledon	3:2
28.12.14	AFC Wimbledon - Exeter City	4:1
25.01.14	AFC Wimbledon - Exeter City	2:1
17.08.13	Exeter City - AFC Wimbledon	2:0
13.04.13	AFC Wimbledon - Exeter City	2:2

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