Match Info

EFL Trophy

Date: 11 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Newport County		Exeter City

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.8	1.83	Watch
	3.55	3.7	1.85	Watch
	3.8	3.82	1.87
	2.85	3.37	2.33	Watch
	3.55	3.6	1.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↓ (3.68)	3.66 ↑ (3.52)	1.96 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport County
26.7%

Draw
25.6%

Exeter City
47.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

26.4%

48.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.5%

28.4%

52%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	0%	88.9%

Newport County - Exeter City Predictions

Users Predictions: Exeter City will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Exeter City will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tzanev N. (G) 22. Ogunneye H. 15. Jenkins L. (C) 2. Evans C. 3. Driscoll-Glennon A. 20. Lloyd B. 6. Brennan C. 44. Braybrooke S. 14. Whitmore K. 7. Kamwa B. 19. Garner G.	23. Bycroft J. (G) 4. Turns E. (C) 34. Oakes L. 15. Yfeko J. 33. Dean T. 20. Woodhouse L. 8. Francis E. 2. McMillan J. 14. Niskanen I. 10. Aitchison J. 9. Wareham J.
Substitutes
27. Alexander-Walker M. 5. Clarke J. 17. Davies T. 13. MacDonald S. (G) 36. Pugh H. 23. Reindorf M. 21. Spellman M.	21. Andrew D. 6. Brierley E. 12. Cole R. 29. McDonald K. 16. Swinkels S. 1. Whitworth J. (G) 37. Wilson K.
Coaches
Hughes D.	Caldwell G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Whitmore K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Yfeko J. ↓, Swinkels S. ↑,
46', Oakes L. ↓, Brierley E. ↑,
50', 0 - 1, Turns E. ⚽, Aitchison J. (A),
58', Garner G. ↓, Reindorf M. ↑,
61', McMillan J. ↓, Cole R. ↑,
61', Niskanen I. ↓, Andrew D. ↑,
71', Lloyd B. ↓, Spellman M. ↑,
72', Ogunneye H. ↓, Pugh H. ↑,
75', Wareham J. ↓, McDonald K. ↑,
77', Pugh H. 🟨,
83', Kamwa B. ↓, Alexander-Walker M. ↑,
89', Evans C. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newport won 1.

In recent matches, Newport has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Exeter is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Exeter may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Exeter is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newport won 5 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:23. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Newport won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Newport County - the odds 3.68 are the expected chance of winning is 25.27%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport County
English League Two
08.11.25	Newport County - Walsall	2:4 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Newport County - Gillingham	3:2 penalties ✺
English League Two
25.10.25	Harrogate Town - Newport County	0:3 ✺
18.10.25	Newport County - Cheltenham Town	0:2 ✺
11.10.25	Accrington Stanley - Newport County	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.5 LWWLW
- Exeter City
English League One
08.11.25	Exeter City - Wigan Athletic	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Halifax Town - Exeter City	0:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
28.10.25	Exeter City - Arsenal U21	4:3 ✺
English League One
23.10.25	Exeter City - Plymouth Argyle	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Stockport County - Exeter City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
30.08.22	Exeter City - Newport County	1:2
English League Two
02.04.22	Newport County - Exeter City	0:1
16.10.21	Exeter City - Newport County	2:2
24.04.21	Exeter City - Newport County	0:0
16.02.21	Newport County - Exeter City	1:1
26.12.19	Exeter City - Newport County	1:0
English EFL Trophy
08.10.19	Newport County - Exeter City	0:2

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