Match Info

League One - Round 16

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Brisbane Road (London)

Referee: Ricardo R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Leyton Orient		Exeter City

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.9	4.33	Watch
	1.68	3.95	4.45	Watch
	1.72	4.09	4.59
	1.81	3.79	3.72	Watch
	1.69	3.82	4.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.81)	3.91 ↑ (3.79)	4.36 ↑ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leyton Orient
54.6%

Draw
23.9%

Exeter City
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

24.3%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

25.5%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leyton Orient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leyton Orient than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	11.1%	11.1%

Leyton Orient - Exeter City Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Leyton Orient will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Exeter will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leyton Orient: 50.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Leyton Orient (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Exeter (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Leyton Orient will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Leyton Orient (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Exeter (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Cahill K. (G) 14. Craig M. 4. Simpson J. 5. Happe D. 3. Adaramola T. 28. Clare S. 8. El Mizouni I. (C) 11. Mitchell D. 25. Wellens C. 10. Connolly A. 32. Ballard D.	1. Whitworth J. (G) 26. Sweeney P. (C) 5. Fitzwater J. 4. Turns E. 14. Niskanen I. 2. McMillan J. 6. Brierley E. 21. Andrew D. 12. Cole R. 10. Aitchison J. 9. Wareham J.
Substitutes
22. Abdulai A. 15. Bakinson T. 19. Beckles O. 17. Koroma J. 9. Lloyd A. 7. O'Neill O. 26. Phillips N. (G)	23. Bycroft J. (G) 33. Dean T. 17. Higgins A. 29. McDonald K. 37. Wilson K. 20. Woodhouse L. 15. Yfeko J.
Coaches
Wellens R.	Caldwell G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Simpson J. 🟨,
16', Sweeney P. 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Wareham J. (Pen),
44', Clare S. 🟨,
45', Wellens R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Brierley E. 🟨,
68', Craig M. ↓, Abdulai A. ↑,
68', Connolly A. ↓, O'Neill O. ↑,
68', Clare S. ↓, Bakinson T. ↑,
70', Aitchison J. ↓, Higgins A. ↑,
70', Sweeney P. ↓, Yfeko J. ↑,
74', Adaramola T. ↓, Koroma J. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, El Mizouni I. ⚽,
79', Ballard D. ↓, Lloyd A. ↑,
81', 2 - 1, Bakinson T. ⚽,
88', Brierley E. ↓, Wilson K. ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 20 and 19).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leyton Orient won 2.

Leyton Orient has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Exeter is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Leyton Orient may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Leyton Orient is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Leyton Orient: Archibald T. (Knee Injury) Edmonds-Green R. (Inactive) Graham J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Exeter: Borges P. (Knee Injury) Cox S. (Groin Injury) Doyle-Hayes J. (Inactive) Mendes C. (Muscle Injury) Rydel R. (Inactive)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Leyton Orient won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:26. (average 1.2:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Leyton Orient won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.2:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Leyton Orient - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 50.91%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Exeter City - the odds 3.72 are the expected chance of winning is 24.77%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leyton Orient
English League One
08.11.25	Wycombe Wanderers - Leyton Orient	4:1 ✺
English FA Cup
03.11.25	Tamworth - Leyton Orient	0:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
28.10.25	Leyton Orient - Aston Villa U21	1:0 ✺
English League One
25.10.25	Leyton Orient - Lincoln City	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Rotherham United - Leyton Orient	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWWL
- Exeter City
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Newport County - Exeter City	0:1 ✺
English League One
08.11.25	Exeter City - Wigan Athletic	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Halifax Town - Exeter City	0:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
28.10.25	Exeter City - Arsenal U21	4:3 ✺
English League One
23.10.25	Exeter City - Plymouth Argyle	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
28.01.25	Exeter City - Leyton Orient	2:6
01.10.24	Leyton Orient - Exeter City	0:1
09.04.24	Leyton Orient - Exeter City	2:2
09.09.23	Exeter City - Leyton Orient	1:2
English League Two
08.02.22	Exeter City - Leyton Orient	1:0
14.08.21	Leyton Orient - Exeter City	3:0
06.03.21	Exeter City - Leyton Orient	4:0

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