Match Info

MLS

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Frisco, TX)

Referee: Montero R. (Cos)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	Apple TV International


	FC Dallas		San Diego

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.7	2.85	Watch
	2.28	3.7	2.92
	2.33	3.72	2.98
	2.2	3.84	2.96	Watch
	2.25	3.5	2.8
	2.43	3.8	2.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (3.01)	3.71 ↑ (3.55)	2.89 ↑ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FC Dallas
41.6%

Draw
25.6%

San Diego
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

26.6%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

26.2%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FC Dallas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in FC Dallas's performance.

San Diego has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and San Diego might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FC Dallas than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with FC Dallas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Diego than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that San Diego could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	16.7%	58.3%

FC Dallas - San Diego Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Dallas will win (votes: 3 - 25%). San Diego will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for San Diego: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. San Diego (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - San Diego (1.84) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - San Diego (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. San Diego (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Collodi M. (G) 18. Moore S. 25. Ibeagha S. 32. Norris N. 77. Kamungo B. 14. Johansson H. 17. Ramiro (C) 55. Kaick 12. Cappis C. 9. Musa P. 21. Valiente J.	13. Sisniega P. (G) 27. Bombino L. 17. Soe O. 26. Duah M. 25. Pilcher I. 20. Godoy A. (C) 15. Soma P. 8. Valakari O. 19. Vazquez D. 7. Ingvartsen M. 77. Mighten A.
Substitutes
5. Abubakar L. 22. Alvaro Augusto 6. Binyamin R. 7. Deedson L. 8. Delgado P. 23. Farrington L. 28. Sarver S. 40. Sirois J. (G) 27. Swann C.	10. Dreyer A. 21. Duke B. 18. Ferree D. (G) 97. McVey C. 9. Morgan L. 90. Pellegrino A. 6. Tverskov J. 33. Verhoeven O. 14. Zamble B. B.
Coaches
Quill E.	Varas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
21', 0 - 1, Valakari O. (Penalty Awarded),
23', Cappis C. 🟨,
30', Johansson H. 🟨,
31', 0 - 2, Ingvartsen M. (Penalty Awarded),
40', Soma P. 🟨,
41', 1 - 2, Musa P. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Pilcher I. ↓, Verhoeven O. ↑,
46', Soma P. ↓, Tverskov J. ↑,
51', 1 - 3, Valakari O. ⚽, Mighten A. (A),
54', 2 - 3, Musa P. (Penalty Awarded),
58', Vazquez D. ↓, Dreyer A. ↑,
58', Mighten A. ↓, Pellegrino A. ↑,
67', Cappis C. ↓, Farrington L. ↑,
71', Soe O. ↓, McVey C. ↑,
77', Valiente J. ↓, Deedson L. ↑,
77', Ramiro ↓, Delgado P. ↑,
85', Ibeagha S. ↓, Binyamin R. ↑,
86', Bombino L. 🟨,
90+5', 3 - 3, Musa P. ⚽, Kamungo B. (A),
90+10', Farrington L. 🟨,

Preview

Dallas has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

San Diego is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Dallas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Dallas: Geovane Jesus (Knee Injury)

There will not play in San Diego: Alvarado Jr A. (Knee Injury) Eisner W. (Lower-Body Injury) Reyes A. (Lower-Body Injury)

There are questionable in Dallas: Julio Santos A. A. (Leg Injury) Sirois J. (Head Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 1:4).

Including home match between the teams, Dallas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Dallas
MLS
07.03.26	Los Angeles - FC Dallas	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	FC Dallas - Nashville SC	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	FC Dallas - Toronto FC	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
14.02.26	Atlanta United - FC Dallas	0:0 ✺
Atlantic Cup
30.01.26	Real Salt Lake - FC Dallas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LTWTW
- San Diego FC
CONCACAF Champions Cup
11.03.26	San Diego - Toluca	3:2 ✺
MLS
07.03.26	Sporting Kansas City - San Diego	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	San Diego - St. Louis City	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	San Diego - CF Montréal	5:0 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
10.02.26	UNAM - San Diego	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
28.06.25	FC Dallas - San Diego	2:3
03.05.25	San Diego - FC Dallas	5:0

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