Match Info

CONCACAF Champions Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	OneSoccer
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Israel	Sport 3
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
South-america	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	FOX One, Fox Sports 2, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, TUDN App, TUDN
Venezuela	Disney+


	San Diego		Toluca

	1	X	2
	3	3.5	2.3	Watch
	2.88	3.4	2.22
	2.97	3.6	2.29
	2.69	3.71	2.33	Watch
	2.75	3.25	2.25
	3.07	3.58	2.35	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (1.86)	3.51 ↓ (3.58)	2.29 ↓ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Diego
32.4%

Draw
26.7%

Toluca
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

25.7%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

27.7%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Diego has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Diego's form might have worsened.

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toluca's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Diego than the current prediction. (+20.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Diego, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-17.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toluca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	28.6%	50%

San Diego - Toluca Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. San Diego will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Toluca will win (votes: 7 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Toluca (1.65) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Toluca (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Ferree D. (G) 33. Verhoeven O. 97. McVey C. 26. Duah M. 27. Bombino L. 19. Vazquez D. 6. Tverskov J. (C) 8. Valakari O. 10. Dreyer A. 7. Ingvartsen M. 90. Pellegrino A.	1. Gonzalez H. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 4. Bruno Mendez 6. Pereira F. 25. del Villar E. 10. Angulo J. 14. Ruiz M. (C) 5. Romero F. 20. Gallardo J. 26. Paulinho 29. Diaz J.
Substitutes
24. Boateng E. 1. dos Santos C. J. (G) 21. Duke B. 77. Mighten A. 9. Morgan L. 25. Pilcher I. 29. Saidi A. 13. Sisniega P. (G) 17. Soe O. 15. Soma P. 14. Zamble B. B.	28. Aceves S. 24. Arce F. 3. Briseno A. 8. Castro N. 7. Cordova S. 22. Garcia L. (G) 11. Helinho 13. Luan 15. Perez P. 27. Rossi F. 9. Vega A. 23. Virgen O.
Coaches
Varas M.	Mohamed A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', Ruiz M. 🟨,
12', Ingvartsen M. 🟥,
16', 0 - 1, Gallardo J. (Penalty Awarded),
32', 1 - 1, Vazquez D. ⚽, Pellegrino A. (A),
41', Ruiz M. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
45', del Villar E. 🟨,
45+4', Diaz J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', del Villar E. ↓, Helinho ↑,
46', Diaz J. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
46', 2 - 1, Vazquez D. ⚽, Bombino L. (A),
52', 3 - 1, Dreyer A. ⚽, Bombino L. (A),
59', Bombino L. 🟨,
61', Vazquez D. ↓, Morgan L. ↑,
61', Verhoeven O. ↓, Pilcher I. ↑,
66', Duah M. 🟨,
69', Pereira F. 🟨,
73', Angulo J. ↓, Vega A. ↑,
88', Duah M. 🟥,
90', 3 - 2, Helinho (Penalty Awarded),
90', Valakari O. ↓, Soma P. ↑,
90', Pellegrino A. ↓, Soe O. ↑,
90+2', Barbosa D. ↓, Cordova S. ↑,
90+6', Dreyer A. ↓, Duke B. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

San Diego is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Toluca is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

San Diego could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Diego FC
MLS
07.03.26	Sporting Kansas City - San Diego	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	San Diego - St. Louis City	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	San Diego - CF Montréal	5:0 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
10.02.26	UNAM - San Diego	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	San Diego - UNAM	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLW
- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
08.03.26	Toluca - Juárez	3:1 ✺
03.03.26	UNAM - Toluca	2:3 ✺
28.02.26	Toluca - Chivas Guadalajara	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Necaxa - Toluca	0:3 ✺
13.02.26	Toluca - Tijuana	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWWW

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