Match Info

Esiliiga - Round 9

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Location: Lasnamäe Sports Complex Stadium (Tallinn)


	FC Tallinn		Tartu Welco

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5.3	5.15	1.38	Watch
	5.52	5.15	1.36
	5.06	5	1.44	Watch
	5	4.6	1.4
	5.64	5.1	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.3 ↑ (5.3)	5 ↓ (5.09)	1.39 ↑ (1.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FC Tallinn
17%

Draw
18.1%

Tartu Welco
64.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17%

17.6%

65.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.8%

17.4%

66.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for FC Tallinn have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Tartu Welco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FC Tallinn than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tartu Welco than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

FC Tallinn - Tartu Welco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
52', 0 - 1, Laasner K. ⚽, Teniste T. (A),
90+1', 0 - 2, Laasner K. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Meistriliiga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, FC Tallinn won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Tartu Welco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Tartu Welco is the team to beat.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, FC Tallinn won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:27. (average 1.4:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, FC Tallinn won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:14. (average 1.6:2.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Tartu Welco	31	20	5	6	81:39	42	65
8	FC Tallinn	30	8	8	14	39:63	-24	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Tallinn
Estonian Esiliiga
27.04.26	FC Tallinn - Levadia Tallinn U21	4:2 ✺
23.04.26	Maardu Linnameeskond - FC Tallinn	1:1 ✺
16.04.26	Viimsi JK - FC Tallinn	5:1 ✺
10.04.26	Flora U21 - FC Tallinn	5:0 ✺
04.04.26	FC Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju U21	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WTLLW
- Tartu JK Welco
Estonian Esiliiga
27.04.26	Tartu Welco - Elva	3:3 ✺
23.04.26	Viimsi JK - Tartu Welco	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	Tartu Welco - Levadia Tallinn U21	3:2 ✺
11.04.26	Nõmme Kalju U21 - Tartu Welco	5:2 ✺
03.04.26	Nõmme United U21 - Tartu Welco	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
21.09.25	Tartu Welco - FC Tallinn	2:2
23.08.25	FC Tallinn - Tartu Welco	0:2
05.07.25	FC Tallinn - Tartu Welco	1:5
29.03.25	Tartu Welco - FC Tallinn	3:1
Club Friendly
26.01.25	FC Tallinn - Tartu Welco	5:3
Estonian Esiliiga
03.11.24	Tartu Welco - FC Tallinn	1:1
20.08.24	FC Tallinn - Tartu Welco	1:3

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