What is the expert prediction for Famalicão vs Vitoria Guimarães?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Famalicão vs Vitoria Guimarães. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Famalicão vs Vitoria Guimarães Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, October 26, 2025)

Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 9

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao (Vila Nova de Famalicao)

Referee: Guelho S. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8
Portugal	Sport TV2
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 8, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Famalicão		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.5	4.5	Watch
	1.85	3.35	4.25	Watch
	1.95	3.47	4.18
	1.14	6.01	40.00	Watch

	1.94	3.32	3.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.91)	3.93 ↑ (3.36)	11.38 ↑ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Famalicão
62.8%

Draw
27.6%

Vitoria Guimarães
9.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

27.9%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

30%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Famalicão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Famalicão's performance.

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vitoria Guimarães might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Famalicão that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vitoria Guimarães could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	23.1%	30.8%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Famalicão will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Guimarães will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Famalicão: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 3. Realpe L. 16. De Haas J. 5. Rafa Soares 6. Van de Looi T. 14. De Amorim M. 77. Joujou A. 20. Sa G. (C) 7. Sorriso 12. Elisor S.	25. Castillo J. (G) 2. Maga 4. Rivas Viondi O. 26. Abascal R. 17. Lebedenko O. 16. Beni 20. Samu (C) 22. Blanco F. 23. Sousa D. 48. Saviolo N. 90. Ndoye A.
Substitutes
9. Abubakar U. 55. Ba I. 2. Garcia 23. Gil Dias 15. Mamageishvili O. 8. Pena M. 10. Rochinha 80. Santos P. 1. Zlobin I. (G)	18. Arcanjo T. 19. Camara O. 27. Charles Silva (G) 13. Mendes J. II. 6. Mitrovic M. 3. Nobrega M. 88. Nogueira M. 7. Oliveira N. 66. Strata T.
Coaches
Oliveira H.	Pinto L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', Sorriso 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, De Amorim M. ⚽, Pinheiro R. (A),
45+1', Blanco F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Blanco F. ↓, Camara O. ↑,
57', Saviolo N. ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
57', Samu ↓, Mitrovic M. ↑,
61', Sousa D. 🟨,
67', Joujou A. ↓, Gil Dias ↑,
75', Maga ↓, Strata T. ↑,
79', Ndoye A. ↓, Oliveira N. ↑,
81', Elisor S. ↓, Abubakar U. ↑,
88', Sa G. ↓, Ba I. ↑,
90+8', 2 - 0, Sorriso ⚽, Gil Dias (A),

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 1.

Famalicão has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Guimarães is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Famalicão may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Famalicão is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O. (Knee Injury) Pastor G. (Inactive)

There will not play in Guimarães: Gustavo (Injury)

There are questionable in Famalicão: Beney R. (Inactive)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 13:29. (average 1:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Famalicão won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:14. (average 0.7:2.3).

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Last Results with these Odds

Famalicão - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 49.29%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Famalicão
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	São João de Ver - Famalicão	0:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Arouca - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Famalicão - Rio Ave	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Casa Pia - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Famalicão - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WTTTL
- Vitoria Guimarães
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	União Lamas - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.10.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Santa Clara	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Alverca - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Braga	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Estrela da Amadora - Vitoria Guimarães	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
08.02.25	Famalicão - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0
01.09.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Famalicão	2:1
09.03.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Famalicão	1:0
08.10.23	Famalicão - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3
14.04.23	Famalicão - Vitoria Guimarães	2:1
31.10.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Famalicão	3:2
06.03.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Famalicão	2:1

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Famalicão - Vitoria Guimarães: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide