Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 8

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães)

Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Angola	Z Sports 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Portugal	Sport TV1
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Vitoria Guimarães		Santa Clara

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.5	Watch
	2.9	2.95	2.55
	2.98	2.88	2.58
	3.12	2.89	2.73
	8.01	3.28	1.58	Watch
				Watch
	2.97	2.93	2.57	Watch
	3.05	2.9	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.72 ↑ (2.39)	2.98 ↓ (3.18)	2.45 ↓ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães
26.5%

Draw
33.2%

Santa Clara
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

29.7%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

30.3%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vitoria Guimarães's form might have worsened.

Santa Clara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Santa Clara's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+13.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vitoria Guimarães, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Santa Clara, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	23.1%	15.4%

Vitoria Guimarães - Santa Clara Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Guimarães will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Santa Clara will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 35% – 88%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Guimarães (2.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Guimarães (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Guimarães (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vitoria Guimarães will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Guimarães (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Santa Clara (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Castillo J. (G) 2. Maga 4. Rivas Viondi O. 26. Abascal R. 13. Mendes J. II. 16. Beni 20. Samu (C) 22. Blanco F. 88. Nogueira M. 48. Saviolo N. 7. Oliveira N.	1. Gabriel Batista (C) 23. Lima S. 21. Venancio F. 32. MT 42. Lucas Soares 8. Ferreira P. 6. Adriano Firmino 3. Matheus Pereira 28. Luquinhas 29. Wendell 70. Vinicius Lopes
Substitutes
18. Arcanjo T. 19. Camara O. 27. Charles Silva (G) 17. Lebedenko O. 6. Mitrovic M. 90. Ndoye A. 3. Nobrega M. 23. Sousa D. 66. Strata T.	11. Brenner 9. Carter A. 2. Diogo Calila 7. Elias Manoel 12. Neneca (G) 64. Paulo Victor 13. Rocha L. 35. Serginho 65. Tavares J.
Coaches
Pinto L.	Pires L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Vinicius Lopes ⚽, Wendell (A),
13', Lima S. 🟨,
28', Vinicius Lopes 🟨,
30', Saviolo N. 🟨,
36', Beni 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Lucas Soares ↓, Diogo Calila ↑,
46', Mendes J. II. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
46', Nogueira M. ↓, Mitrovic M. ↑,
46', Oliveira N. ↓, Ndoye A. ↑,
59', Luquinhas ↓, Serginho ↑,
59', Beni ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
60', Vinicius Lopes ↓, Paulo Victor ↑,
65', Diogo Calila ↓, Elias Manoel ↑,
69', Saviolo N. ↓, Camara O. ↑,
72', Blanco F. 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Ndoye A. ⚽, Samu (A),
77', Wendell ↓, Brenner ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Samu ⚽,
81', Matheus Pereira 🟨,
82', Castillo J. 🟨,
83', Adriano Firmino 🟨,
88', Elias Manoel 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Guimarães: Gustavo (Injury)

There will not play in Santa Clara: Pacheco P. (Knee Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:10. (average 1.4:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:2. (average 1.1:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
28.09.25	Alverca - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Braga	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Estrela da Amadora - Vitoria Guimarães	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Moreirense - Vitoria Guimarães	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTWTL
- CD Santa Clara
Liga Portugal
27.09.25	Santa Clara - Tondela	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Santa Clara - Alverca	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Benfica - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Estoril Praia - Santa Clara	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Santa Clara - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
05.04.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Santa Clara	2:0
10.11.24	Santa Clara - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0
05.03.23	Santa Clara - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3
09.09.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Santa Clara	1:0
01.05.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Santa Clara	1:1
17.12.21	Santa Clara - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0
17.04.21	Vitoria Guimarães - Santa Clara	1:0

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