Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 6

Date: 22 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hungary	Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4


	Farense		Arouca

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.25	2.7	Watch
	2.55	3.4	2.6
	2.55	3.5	2.6	Watch
	2.58	3.61	2.71
	2.56	3.55	2.65	Watch
	2.5	3.5	2.6	Watch
	2.54	3.6	2.61	Watch
	2.65	3.35	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↓ (2.86)	3.47 ↑ (3.43)	2.65 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
36.9%

Draw
27.3%

Arouca
35.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

27.8%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

29.8%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Farense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arouca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	37.5%	25%

Farense - Arouca Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Farense will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Arouca will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Farense: 4% – 71%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Velho R. (C) 3. Moreno M. 4. Jorge A. 34. Raul Silva 28. Pastor 29. Claudio Falcao 93. Menino M. 31. Derick Poloni 8. Barbosa R. 14. Poveda D. 79. Merghem M.	58. Mantl N. (G) 28. Esgaio T. 13. Popovic B. 3. Fontan J. 27. Dante A. 21. Fukui T. 5. Simao D. (C) 19. Trezza A. 2. Sylla M. 7. Rodrigues I. 50. Yalcin G.
Substitutes
11. Bermejo A. 41. Candeias A. 23. Canizares L. (G) 16. Geovanny 44. Lucas Africo 19. Millan A. 6. Neto 2. Paulo Victor 70. Rivaldo	78. Alex Pinto 22. Gozalbez P. 10. Jason 73. Lamba C. 9. Morozov V. 11. Puche 89. Santos Carvalho P. 1. Valido J. (G) 26. Weverson
Coaches
Mota J.	Garcia G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', Claudio Falcao 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Trezza A. ⚽, Yalcin G. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Moreno M. ↓, Millan A. ↑,
57', Menino M. ↓, Bermejo A. ↑,
57', Derick Poloni ↓, Paulo Victor ↑,
69', Fukui T. 🟨,
70', Simao D. ↓, Santos Carvalho P. ↑,
73', Trezza A. ↓, Jason ↑,
77', Rodrigues I. 🟨,
84', Merghem M. ↓, Candeias A. ↑,
84', Raul Silva ↓, Neto ↑,
88', Yalcin G. ↓, Morozov V. ↑,
88', Sylla M. ↓, Weverson ↑,
88', Rodrigues I. ↓, Puche ↑,
90+3', Jason 🟨,
90+4', Esgaio T. 🟨,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

Farense has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Arouca is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Farense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Farense: Kaique Pereira (Forearm injury)

There are questionable in Arouca: Fontan J. (Injury) Galovic N. (Injury) Kouassi E. (Injury) Quaresma (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Farense won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Farense won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Liga Portugal
15.09.24	Porto - Farense	2:1 ✺
01.09.24	Nacional - Farense	2:0 ✺
23.08.24	Farense - Sporting Lisbon	0:5 ✺
17.08.24	Rio Ave - Farense	1:0 ✺
11.08.24	Farense - Moreirense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
13.09.24	Arouca - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
01.09.24	Rio Ave - Arouca	1:0 ✺
25.08.24	Arouca - Nacional	1:0 ✺
18.08.24	Moreirense - Arouca	3:1 ✺
12.08.24	Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
30.03.24	Arouca - Farense	2:1
06.11.23	Farense - Arouca	2:0
Portuguese Liga 2
05.05.19	Farense - Arouca	2:2
06.01.19	Arouca - Farense	3:3
Taça de Portugal
21.10.18	Farense - Arouca	1:3

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