Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 20

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Rio Ave (Vila do Conde)

Referee: Guelho S. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1


	Rio Ave		Arouca

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.3	2.3	Watch
	2.4	3.25	2.85
	3.15	3.15	2.28	Watch
	3.35	3.26	2.34
	3.11	3.23	2.38	Watch
	3	3.1	2.3
	3.02	3.44	2.45	Watch
	3.14	3.2	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (1.97)	3.24 ↓ (3.67)	2.4 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Ave
31.5%

Draw
29.2%

Arouca
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

25.8%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

25.9%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rio Ave's form might have worsened.

Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arouca's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+16.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rio Ave, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-13%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arouca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.6%	57.9%	10.5%

Rio Ave - Arouca Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Rio Ave will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). Arouca will win (votes: 2 - 10.5%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 57.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.7% – 80.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Rio Ave (1.86) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Rio Ave (1.62) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Rio Ave (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Chamorro K. (G) 23. Petrasso F. 63. Lomboto J. 6. Abbey N. 17. Vrousai M. 5. Ntoi A. 10. Aguilera Zamora B. 77. Richards O. 19. Papakanellos A. 9. Clayton (C) 80. Pohlmann O.	12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 25. Kuipers B. 15. Sanchez J. 3. Fontan J. 22. van Ee E. 21. Fukui T. 19. Trezza A. 14. Lee H. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.
Substitutes
32. Brabec J. 7. Diogo Bezerra 54. Liavas G. 44. Nikitscher T. 4. Panzo J. 29. Pastor A. (G) 18. Spikic D. 20. Tome J. 14. Zoabi K.	44. Dante A. 10. Gozalbez P. 77. Jansonas R. 24. Mansilla B. 6. Monteiro D. 5. Popovic B. 11. Puche 20. Santiago Y. 1. Valido J. (G)
Coaches
Sylaidopoulos S.	Seabra V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', van Ee E. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Tiago Esgaio ⚽, Fontan J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
53', Petrasso F. 🟨,
54', 0 - 2, Lomboto J. (Own goal),
60', Richards O. ↓, Diogo Bezerra ↑,
67', 0 - 3, Lee H. ⚽, Kuipers B. (A),
68', Sanchez J. ↓, Popovic B. ↑,
73', Papakanellos A. ↓, Nikitscher T. ↑,
73', Lomboto J. ↓, Panzo J. ↑,
73', Ntoi A. ↓, Spikic D. ↑,
76', Lee H. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
76', Barbero I. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
80', Aguilera Zamora B. ↓, Zoabi K. ↑,
83', Clayton 🟨,
90+2', Tiago Esgaio ↓, Santiago Y. ↑,
90+2', van Ee E. ↓, Monteiro D. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 1.

Rio Ave has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Arouca's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Arouca: Nandin D. (Inactive) Pedro Santos (Inactive) Rocha M. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Arouca: Kuipers B. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:22. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Rio Ave won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.4:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10:7	3	11
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5:15	-10	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
25.01.26	Nacional - Rio Ave	4:0 ✺
17.01.26	Rio Ave - Benfica	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Rio Ave - Casa Pia	3:1 ✺
28.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave	4:0 ✺
20.12.25	Gil Vicente - Rio Ave	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLWLT
- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
24.01.26	Arouca - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	AVS - Arouca	0:1 ✺
03.01.26	Tondela - Arouca	3:1 ✺
28.12.25	Arouca - Gil Vicente	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Santa Clara - Arouca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
23.08.25	Arouca - Rio Ave	3:3
10.02.25	Arouca - Rio Ave	1:1
01.09.24	Rio Ave - Arouca	1:0
19.04.24	Rio Ave - Arouca	1:1
10.12.23	Arouca - Rio Ave	2:2
Portuguese League Cup
30.07.23	Arouca - Rio Ave	2:0
Liga Portugal
28.04.23	Rio Ave - Arouca	1:0

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