Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 19

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Carvalho H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Bold+, Sport Live
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 2
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kuwait	KTV Sport
Lithuania	Sport 1
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Arouca		Sporting Lisbon

	1	X	2
	8	5.75	1.3	Watch
	8.8	5.9	1.27	Watch
	9.98	6.08	1.31
	9.12	6.02	1.3	Watch
	8.5	5	1.3
	8.57	5.85	1.34	Watch
	9	5.33	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.85 ↓ (11.62)	5.7 ↓ (6.78)	1.3 ↑ (1.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
10.7%

Draw
16.6%

Sporting Lisbon
72.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

8.1%

13.9%

78%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sporting Lisbon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	7.1%	85.7%

Arouca - Sporting Lisbon Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - Sporting (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Arouca (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sporting Lisbon will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sporting Lisbon will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Arouca (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Sporting (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 4. Rocha M. 15. Sanchez J. 3. Fontan J. 22. van Ee E. 21. Fukui T. 19. Trezza A. 14. Lee H. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.	1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 25. Inacio G. 2. Matheus Reis 20. Araujo M. 52. Simoes J. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 10. Catamo G. 17. Trincao 31. Luis Guilherme 97. Suarez L.
Substitutes
44. Dante A. 46. Flores M. 10. Gozalbez P. 77. Jansonas R. 24. Mansilla B. 6. Monteiro D. 11. Puche 20. Santiago Y. 1. Valido J. (G)	27. Alisson Santos 23. Braganca D. 6. Debast Z. 26. Diomande O. 8. Goncalves P. 91. Mangas R. 5. Morita H. 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)
Coaches
Seabra V.	Borges R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Suarez L. ⚽, Araujo M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 1 - 1, Barbero I. ⚽, Fontan J. (A),
64', Simoes J. 🟨,
69', Simoes J. ↓, Morita H. ↑,
69', Trincao ↓, Goncalves P. ↑,
70', van Ee E. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
70', Rocha M. ↓, Dante A. ↑,
76', Lee H. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
76', De Arruabarrena I. 🟨,
80', Matheus Reis ↓, Debast Z. ↑,
80', Luis Guilherme ↓, Alisson Santos ↑,
84', Djouahra N. 🟨,
87', Barbero I. ↓, Puche ↑,
88', Sanchez J. 🟨,
90', Suarez L. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 2, Suarez L. ⚽, Catamo G. (A),
90+7', Hjulmand M. 🟨,
90+7', Matheus Reis 🟥,
90+7', Silva R. 🟨,
90:00, Rocha M. 🟥,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 0.

Arouca has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sporting is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sporting may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Sporting has had a series of home games.

In this match, Sporting is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Arouca: Pedro Santos (Inactive)

There will not play in Sporting: Diomande O. (Injury) Goncalves P. (Muscle Injury) Ioannidis F. (Knee Injury) Quaresma E. (Injury) Quenda G. (Foot Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 12:47. (average 0.6:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 6:19. (average 0.6:1.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	20:9	11	18
6	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10:7	3	11

Last Results with these Odds

Sporting Lisbon - the odds 1.21 are the expected chance of winning is 78%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
17.01.26	AVS - Arouca	0:1 ✺
03.01.26	Tondela - Arouca	3:1 ✺
28.12.25	Arouca - Gil Vicente	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Santa Clara - Arouca	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Arouca - Alverca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WLTTW
- Sporting Lisbon
UEFA Champions League
20.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Paris Saint-Germain	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
16.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Casa Pia	3:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
06.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
02.01.26	Gil Vicente - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
28.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
17.08.25	Sporting Lisbon - Arouca	6:0
15.02.25	Sporting Lisbon - Arouca	2:2
13.09.24	Arouca - Sporting Lisbon	0:3
10.03.24	Arouca - Sporting Lisbon	0:3
08.10.23	Sporting Lisbon - Arouca	2:1
16.04.23	Sporting Lisbon - Arouca	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
24.01.23	Arouca - Sporting Lisbon	1:2

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