Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 15

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Referee: Azevedo Duarte F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV3


	Farense		Leiria

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.1	Watch
	2.2	3.15	3.2
	2.14	3.31	3.58
	2.22	3.17	3.35	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.1
	2.24	3.1	3.28	Watch
	2.22	2.9	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (2.12)	3.08 ↓ (3.42)	3.3 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
41.9%

Draw
30.1%

Leiria
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

27.3%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

27.2%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Leiria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Farense - Leiria Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Farense will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Leiria will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Farense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Araujo B. (G) 2. Delgado F. 26. Ruben 5. Romero F. 34. Herrero T. 17. Candeias A. 29. Claudio Falcao (C) 20. Semedo Y. 10. Almeida B. 14. Poveda D. 7. Costa R.	98. Joao Bravim (G) 68. Maga 6. Rodriguez G. 16. Ze Pedro 52. Sylla H. 41. Daniel Borges 21. Pires M. 10. van der Gaag J. 9. Munoz J. (C) 19. Fernandez P. 86. Michel D.
Substitutes
43. Dario Miranda 25. Dorregaray D. 35. Furtado D. 16. Geovanny 23. Gjorgjev N. 8. Menino M. 80. Ndiaye A. 90. Sangare B. 30. Tannander J. (G)	3. Baro M. 1. Carrasco S. (G) 20. Gomes B. 11. Jair da Silva 8. Kouassi E. 17. Lucho Vega 78. Santos J. 15. Silva J. 4. Velazquez S.
Coaches
Silas	Pereira F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Claudio Falcao 🟨,
27', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', van der Gaag J. ↓, Jair da Silva ↑,
65', Delgado F. 🟨,
66', Poveda D. ↓, Dorregaray D. ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Jair da Silva ⚽,
75', Munoz J. (Penalty Awarded),
81', Romero F. ↓, Geovanny ↑,
81', Almeida B. ↓, Sangare B. ↑,
84', Fernandez P. ↓, Lucho Vega ↑,
89', Candeias A. ↓, Ndiaye A. ↑,
89', Semedo Y. ↓, Gjorgjev N. ↑,
90+1', Munoz J. ↓, Baro M. ↑,
90+1', Daniel Borges ↓, Santos J. ↑,
90+2', Baro M. 🟨,
90+2', Michel D. ↓, Velazquez S. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 6).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Leiria may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Farense is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Farense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Including home match between the teams, Farense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Leiria - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 28.71%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Farense - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.12.25	Académico de Viseu - Farense	3:0 ✺
08.12.25	Farense - Vizela	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Farense	3:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Farense - Silves	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWLW
- UD Leiria
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Vila Meã - Leiria	0:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.12.25	Leiria - Felgueiras	2:3 ✺
05.12.25	Penafiel - Leiria	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Leiria - Benfica B	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	1 Dezembro - Leiria	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
19.07.25	Farense - Leiria	2:0

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