Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 18

Date: 19 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas (Moreira de Conegos)

Referee: Guelho S. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6


	Moreirense		Farense

	1	X	2
	2	3	4.2	Watch
	2	3	4
	2.05	3.1	4	Watch
	2.02	3.14	4.25	Watch
	2.05	3	4	Watch
	2.01	3.2	4.17	Watch
	2.05	3.1	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.9)	3.08 ↓ (3.35)	4.09 ↓ (4.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moreirense
46.4%

Draw
30.6%

Farense
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

28.1%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

29.4%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Moreirense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.7%	37.5%	18.7%

Moreirense - Farense Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 7 - 43.8%). Farense will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Moreirense: 19.5% – 68.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Kewin (G) 76. Pinto D. 26. Maracas 44. Marcelo (C) 23. Frimpong G. 80. Ofori L. 6. Ramos R. 31. Madson 11. Alan 77. Gabrielzinho 9. Asue L.	33. Velho R. (G) 3. Moreno M. 4. Jorge A. 5. Ribeiro T. 28. Pastor 93. Menino M. 29. Claudio Falcao 2. Paulo Victor 71. Jaiminho 14. Poveda D. 77. Matias M. (C)
Substitutes
10. Antonisse J. 66. Batista G. 20. Bernardo 15. Buta L. 22. Caio (G) 2. Fabiano 95. Guilherme Schettine 21. Santos P. 5. Tavares S.	7. Balde E. 31. Derick Poloni 1. Kaique Pereira (G) 44. Lucas Africo 79. Merghem M. 19. Millan A. 34. Raul Silva 70. Rivaldo 21. Soares F.
Coaches
Peixoto C.	Marreco T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Pastor 🟨,
37', Matias M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Frimpong G. 🟨,
61', Claudio Falcao 🟨,
67', Madson ↓, Santos P. ↑,
67', Ofori L. ↓, Tavares S. ↑,
67', Jaiminho ↓, Millan A. ↑,
67', Poveda D. ↓, Balde E. ↑,
73', Gabrielzinho ↓, Bernardo ↑,
73', Asue L. ↓, Guilherme Schettine ↑,
76', Jorge A. 🟨,
84', Paulo Victor ↓, Derick Poloni ↑,
84', Matias M. ↓, Merghem M. ↑,
87', Ramos R. 🟨,
90', Alan ↓, Antonisse J. ↑,
90+3', Menino M. ↓, Soares F. ↑,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 8 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Moreirense won 3.

Moreirense is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Farense is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Farense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Moreirense is a favorite.

There will not play in Moreirense: Guilherme Liberato (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Farense: Moreno M. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Moreirense: Hernani Infande (Knee Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Moreirense won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 15:10 (average 1.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Moreirense won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:5 (average 1.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Moreirense FC
Taça de Portugal
12.01.25	Gil Vicente - Moreirense	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
04.01.25	Moreirense - AVS	1:1 ✺
28.12.24	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	2:2 ✺
21.12.24	Moreirense - Porto	0:3 ✺
14.12.24	Nacional - Moreirense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTTLL
- SC Farense
Taça de Portugal
14.01.25	Farense - Benfica	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.01.25	Santa Clara - Farense	0:0 ✺
29.12.24	Farense - Vitoria Guimarães	2:2 ✺
21.12.24	Famalicão - Farense	1:2 ✺
14.12.24	Farense - Gil Vicente	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
11.08.24	Farense - Moreirense	1:2
24.02.24	Farense - Moreirense	0:1
23.09.23	Moreirense - Farense	1:0
Portuguese League Cup
23.07.23	Moreirense - Farense	1:2 penalties
Portuguese Liga 2
07.04.23	Farense - Moreirense	3:1
23.10.22	Moreirense - Farense	3:2
Liga Portugal
08.02.21	Farense - Moreirense	1:2

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