Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 25

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Azevedo Duarte F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV4


	Penafiel		Farense

	1	X	2
	2.8	3	2.38
	2.75	3.1	2.3
	2.88	3.05	2.45
	3.04	3.15	2.59
	3.07	3.07	2.43	Watch
	2.8	2.88	2.45
	2.91	3.12	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.89)	3.05 ↑ (2.84)	2.44 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
31.9%

Draw
30.2%

Farense
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

32%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

31.3%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Penafiel - Farense Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Penafiel will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Farense will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Farense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Femenias J. (G) 5. Sanchez J. 4. Miguel J. (C) 33. Moreira C. 7. Anzai S. 88. Alves R. 21. Pedro Sa 6. Carbonell A. 14. Pereira B. 20. Santos A. 19. Alcaina R.	99. Araujo B. (G) 78. Alex Pinto 4. Alysson 26. Ruben 6. Derick Poloni 29. Claudio Falcao (C) 10. Almeida B. 20. Semedo Y. 90. Sangare B. 14. Poveda D. 21. Jaiminho
Substitutes
75. Alloh T. 37. Davo 61. Injai M. 17. Kebe I. 2. lano Imbene 27. Negrao G. 1. Oliveira Miguel (G) 9. Rodrigues D. 95. Sery J.	17. Candeias A. 9. Carter A. 22. Carvalho M. (G) 7. Costa R. 25. Dorregaray D. 34. Herrero T. 77. Matias M. 8. Menino M. 46. Rafael Pontelo
Coaches
Aira J.	Jose Faria

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Alysson 🟨,
34', Derick Poloni 🟨,
45+2', Alcaina R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', Semedo Y. 🟥,
56', Alves R. 🟨,
61', Alcaina R. ↓, Sery J. ↑,
61', Alves R. ↓, Davo ↑,
63', Sanchez J. 🟨,
65', Poveda D. ↓, Carter A. ↑,
67', Alex Pinto 🟨,
73', 1 - 0, Pereira B. ⚽,
79', Sanchez J. ↓, Injai M. ↑,
82', Alex Pinto ↓, Herrero T. ↑,
82', Jaiminho ↓, Menino M. ↑,
82', Almeida B. ↓, Costa R. ↑,
82', Alysson ↓, Rafael Pontelo ↑,
86', Rafael Pontelo 🟨,
90', Santos A. ↓, Negrao G. ↑,
90', Carbonell A. ↓, Kebe I. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 1, Costa R. ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 0.

Penafiel is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Farense's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Penafiel won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Penafiel	6	4	1	1	13:5	8	13
4	SC Farense	6	3	2	1	11:5	6	11

Last Results with these Odds

Penafiel - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 31.48%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
01.03.26	Penafiel - Benfica B	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Felgueiras - Penafiel	0:0 ✺
16.02.26	Penafiel - Lusitânia	2:0 ✺
06.02.26	Chaves - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
30.01.26	Penafiel - Leixões	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 TTWWT
- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
01.03.26	Farense - Lusitânia	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Chaves - Farense	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Farense - Leixões	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Marítimo - Farense	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Farense - Porto B	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
26.10.25	Farense - Penafiel	0:0
22.04.23	Farense - Penafiel	2:1
05.11.22	Penafiel - Farense	0:2
19.03.22	Penafiel - Farense	1:3
01.11.21	Farense - Penafiel	2:2
12.01.20	Penafiel - Farense	3:0
19.04.19	Farense - Penafiel	1:1

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