Match Info

1. Lig - Round 36

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Atatürk Olimpiyat (Istanbul)

Referee: Ozturk U. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Fatih Karagümrükspor		Keçiörengücü

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.6	3.8	Watch
	1.68	3.6	4
	1.87	3.75	3.75
	1.92	3.82	3.94
	1.86	3.72	3.87	Watch
	1.73	3.5	4.33
	1.84	3.62	3.8
	1.87	3.75	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.67)	3.67 ↓ (3.82)	3.91 ↓ (4.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fatih Karagümrükspor
50.9%

Draw
25.3%

Keçiörengücü
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

24.2%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

25.4%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fatih Karagümrükspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Keçiörengücü has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fatih Karagümrükspor than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fatih Karagümrükspor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Keçiörengücü than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Fatih Karagümrükspor - Keçiörengücü Predictions

Users Predictions: Fatih Karagümrükspor will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fatih Karagümrükspor will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bilgin E. (G) 23. Ulvan T. 4. Demir Y. E. 3. Djilobodji P. 33. Kurukalip C. 35. Cankaya A. R. 14. Doh M. 7. Camacho J. 10. Dovedan N. 70. Serginho 9. Wesley Moraes	1. Erdogan M. (G) 19. Yildiz U. 5. Caliskan O. 15. Sengul A. 11. Dere A. 88. Silva M. 6. Develi E. 14. Camara M. 8. Rroca E. 21. Ezeh F. 10. Dembele P. M.
Substitutes
97. Akyuz F. (G) 6. Dabanli B. 90. Demiroglu B. 15. Dursun S. 91. Gray A. 19. Gurpuz G. 11. Johnson D. 72. Kalayci B. 20. Mert M. 22. Tintis E.	20. Ayaroglu H. 16. Ayaydin O. 44. Caulker S. 55. Diouf M. 4. Kula M. 73. Lus S. 36. Nahirci O. 18. Satilmis E. (G) 95. Traore A.
Coaches
Korkmaz O.	Agcay S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Develi E. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Wesley Moraes ⚽, Kurukalip C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dere A. ↓, Lus S. ↑,
53', Silva M. 🟨,
58', Dembele P. M. ↓, Traore A. ↑,
63', Kurukalip C. 🟨,
67', Caliskan O. 🟨,
72', Dovedan N. ↓, Gurpuz G. ↑,
77', Camara M. ↓, Nahirci O. ↑,
79', Traore A. 🟨,
85', Silva M. ↓, Caulker S. ↑,
89', Ulvan T. ↓, Dursun S. ↑,
90+1', Dursun S. 🟨,
90+2', Sengul A. 🟨,
90+3', Cankaya A. R. 🟨,
90+4', Camacho J. ↓, Demiroglu B. ↑,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Lig and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Karagümrük won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Keçiörengücü could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Karagümrük is a favorite.

There will not play in Karagümrük: Ersoy O. (Inactive)

There will not play in Keçiörengücü: Donertas K. (Suspended)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Karagümrük won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 6:15 (average 0.9:2.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Karagümrük won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:9 (average 1:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fatih Karagümrükspor
Turkish First League
19.04.25	Boluspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Gençlerbirliği	0:0 ✺
09.04.25	Erokspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Erzurumspor	1:0 ✺
29.03.25	Yeni Malatyaspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LTLWW
- Keçiörengücü
Turkish First League
20.04.25	Keçiörengücü - Umraniyespor	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	İstanbulspor - Keçiörengücü	0:2 ✺
08.04.25	Keçiörengücü - Şanlıurfaspor	4:1 ✺
05.04.25	Manisa FK - Keçiörengücü	1:2 ✺
29.03.25	Keçiörengücü - Amed SK	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
22.12.24	Keçiörengücü - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:1
12.07.20	Keçiörengücü - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:0
22.12.19	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Keçiörengücü	0:2
Turkish Second League White Group
17.12.16	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Keçiörengücü	1:2
Turkish Second League Red Group
17.01.16	Keçiörengücü - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:1
06.09.15	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Keçiörengücü	1:3
Turkish Second League White Group
31.01.15	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Keçiörengücü	2:2

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