Match Info

Date: 6 October 2022, Thursday

Location: Ülker Stadyumu (Istanbul)

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hungary	RTL
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay


	Fenerbahçe		AEK Larnaca

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.33	7.5
	1.44	4.6	7
	1.47	4.5	7.3
	1.43	4.8	7.2
	1.47	4.62	7.44
	1.44	4.33	7.5
	1.46	4.75	7.2
	1.46	4.7	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.38)	4.58 ↓ (4.83)	7.29 ↓ (7.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fenerbahçe
65.9%

Draw
20.9%

AEK Larnaca
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.5%

19.5%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.9%

19.1%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenerbahçe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

AEK Larnaca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Larnaca than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.3%	7.9%	11.8%

Fenerbahçe - AEK Larnaca Predictions

Users Predictions: Fenerbahçe will win (61 of 76 users predict this - 80.26%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.31% – 89.21%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fenerbahçe has currently - 4, has a chance of 1st (41%), has a chance of 2nd (44%), has a small chance of 3rd (12%), has a good chance of round of 16 (58%), has a chance of qtrs (25%), has a small chance of semis (10%), has a very small chance of final (4%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

AEK Larnaca has currently - 3, has a very small chance of 1st (3%), has a small chance of 2nd (13%), has a good chance of 3rd (56%), has a very small chance of round of 16 (5%), has a very small chance of qtrs (<1%), has a very small chance of semis (<1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 53, very big importance 96, big match rating 75. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Fenerbahçe is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches AEK Larnaca is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Fenerbahçe is certain favorite.

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: King J. (Injury) Peres L. (Injury) Sangare N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in AEK Larnaca: Gama B. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in AEK Larnaca: Paraskevas A. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Fenerbahçe to win the game is with odds 1.38.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
02.10.22	Beşiktaş - Fenerbahçe	0:0 ✺
18.09.22	Fenerbahçe - Alanyaspor	5:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
15.09.22	Rennes - Fenerbahçe	2:2 ✺
08.09.22	Fenerbahçe - Dynamo Kyiv	2:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
03.09.22	Fenerbahçe - Kayserispor	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWTWW
- AEK Larnaca
Cypriot First Division
01.10.22	AEK Larnaca - Anorthosis	4:0 ✺
18.09.22	Paphos - AEK Larnaca	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
15.09.22	Dynamo Kyiv - AEK Larnaca	0:1 ✺
Cypriot First Division
11.09.22	AEK Larnaca - Nea Salamis	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
08.09.22	AEK Larnaca - Rennes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WLWWL

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