Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 2

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, TVG 2


	Ponferradina		Pontevedra

	1	X	2
	1.95	3	3.7
	1.9	3	3.8
	2.05	2.82	4.05
	2.1	2.92	4.5
	2.12	2.73	4.21	Watch
	2.03	2.81	4.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.64)	2.88 ↓ (4.08)	4.09 ↑ (4.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
45.5%

Draw
32%

Pontevedra
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

23.2%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ponferradina's form might have worsened.

Pontevedra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponferradina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontevedra than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Ponferradina - Pontevedra Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Pontevedra (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pontevedra (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Jimenez A. (G) 21. Moreno D. 4. Moltenis B. 3. Novoa G. 19. Lopez A. 5. Undabarrena E. 8. Aguilar Elizalde E. 20. Ferrer P. 14. Fernandez X. 10. Valle B. 18. Vazquez B.	13. Marqueta R. (G) 2. Eimil V. 23. Montoro A. 4. Bosch M. 15. Juanra 16. Vidorreta A. 10. Pino Y. 8. Abelenda B. 6. Ribeiro A. 7. Gonzalez A. (C) 9. Selma D.
Substitutes
2. Andujar D. 25. Barredo P. (G) 9. Cortes J. 16. Frimpong E. 23. Jorrin M. 17. Keita A. 26. Kysil V. 11. Mula A. 1. Prieto A. (G) 6. San Emeterio F. 7. Sergio Benito 15. Sousa V.	22. Comparada Gonzalez A. 5. Conesa N. 11. Cuesta M. 20. Denia M. 3. Exposito A. 21. Hervias P. 17. Macias L. 26. Mareque A. 14. Resende J. 24. Rodriguez T. 1. Sousa E. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Montoro A. 🟨,
13', 🟨,
30', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Vidorreta A. ↓, Conesa N. ↑,
55', Bosch M. 🟨,
57', Gonzalez A. ↓, Macias L. ↑,
57', Bosch M. ↓, Exposito A. ↑,
61', Fernandez X. ↓, San Emeterio F. ↑,
61', Lopez A. ↓, Keita A. ↑,
61', Ferrer P. ↓, Cortes J. ↑,
64', 0 - 1, Ribeiro A. ⚽,
70', Undabarrena E. ↓, Frimpong E. ↑,
71', 🟨,
75', Montoro A. 🟨,
80', Vazquez B. ↓, Sergio Benito ↑,
82', Selma D. ↓, Rodriguez T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 3.

Ponferradina has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pontevedra is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ponferradina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ponferradina is seen as the favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 0.8:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponferradina won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
31.08.25	Real Avilés - Ponferradina	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
23.08.25	Ponferradina - Athletic Bilbao B	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Ferrol - Ponferradina	1:1 ✺
13.08.25	Ponferradina - Lugo	3:2 ✺
09.08.25	Ponferradina - Valladolid B	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLTWL
- Pontevedra CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
30.08.25	Pontevedra - Cacereño	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
20.08.25	Coruxo - Pontevedra	3:0 ✺
16.08.25	Villalonga - Pontevedra	0:2 ✺
15.08.25	Pontevedra - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
07.08.25	Estradense - Pontevedra	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
03.03.19	Ponferradina - Pontevedra	1:0
14.10.18	Pontevedra - Ponferradina	0:0
18.03.18	Pontevedra - Ponferradina	2:2
29.10.17	Ponferradina - Pontevedra	1:0
02.04.17	Ponferradina - Pontevedra	1:0
06.11.16	Pontevedra - Ponferradina	2:0

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