Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 17

Date: 18 July 2025, Friday

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara)


	Ferroviária		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.25
	2.35	3	3.1
	2.44	3.14	3.23
	1.55	3.55	6.98	Watch
	2.25	3	3.4
	2.42	3.08	3.1	Watch
	1.88	3.2	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (1.92)	3.15 ↓ (3.3)	3.76 ↓ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
43.9%

Draw
30.5%

Athletic Club
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

28.1%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

27.9%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Athletic Club has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	15.4%	7.7%

Ferroviária - Athletic Club Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Athletic will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ferroviária: 54% – 99.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferroviária (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Athletic (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferroviária (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Athletic (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 22. Ronaldo Alves (C) 44. Maycon 31. Ze Mario 5. Ricardinho 35. Netinho 37. Thiago Lopes 77. Juninho 39. Thayllon 92. Carlao	31. Adriel (G) 2. Douglas Pele 4. Sidimar (C) 43. Marcelo Ajul 84. Rodrigo Gelado 14. Fabricio Isidoro 38. Sandry 10. David Braga 7. Welinton Torrao 21. Tavares R. 77. Max
Substitutes
8. Alencar 66. Edson Lucas 80. Fabio 95. Filipe Costa (G) 25. Ian Luccas 43. Joao Ramos 7. Kevin 1. Leo Wall (G) 9. Ronaldo 29. Tarik 17. Victor Silva 57. Wesley Pomba	27. Alason Carioca 44. Alex Nascimento 11. Ezequiel 25. Glauco (G) 1. Jefferson Luis (G) 13. Jhonatan Silva 33. Leo Dourado 55. Martinez F. 96. Mateus Goncalves 19. Neto Costa 52. Wesley Gasolina 6. Yuri
Coaches
Vinicius Bergantin	Duarte R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Thayllon ⚽, Juninho (A),
36', Ze Mario 🟨,
43', Marcelo Ajul 🟨,
45+5', Ze Mario 🟨,
45+6', Carlao 🟨,
45+8', 1 - 1, Tavares R. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Thiago Lopes ↓, Kevin ↑,
58', 1 - 2, David Braga ⚽, Douglas Pele (A),
63', Juninho ↓, Wesley Pomba ↑,
67', Welinton Torrao ↓, Mateus Goncalves ↑,
67', Max ↓, Alason Carioca ↑,
67', Maycon ↓, Joao Ramos ↑,
78', Thayllon ↓, Ian Luccas ↑,
78', Netinho ↓, Alencar ↑,
79', Tavares R. ↓, Neto Costa ↑,
79', David Braga ↓, Ezequiel ↑,
90+3', Ricardinho 🟨,
90+3', Carlao 🟨,
90+3', Ricardinho 🟨,
90+4', Ronaldo Alves 🟨,
90+7', Wesley Pomba 🟥,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 16 and 15)

Ferroviária is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Athletic is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ferroviária is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ferroviária: Albano (Yellow Cards) Gustavo Jundi (Inactive) Gustavo Medina (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Athletic: Alex Nascimento (Inactive) Edson Miranda (Inactive) Lincoln (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ferroviária: Cassio Gabriel (Inactive) Denilson (Inactive) Eric Melo (Inactive) Juninho (Injury) Vitor Barreto (Inactive)

There are questionable in Athletic: Da Cruz A. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ferroviária won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ferroviária won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
13.07.25	Criciúma - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
06.07.25	Ferroviária - Vila Nova	1:3 ✺
30.06.25	Paysandu - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
21.06.25	Ferroviária - CRB Maceio	1:0 ✺
16.06.25	Chapecoense - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLWL
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
14.07.25	Athletic Club - Avaí	4:0 ✺
07.07.25	América Mineiro - Athletic Club	0:1 ✺
29.06.25	Athletic Club - Remo	1:2 ✺
23.06.25	Goiás - Athletic Club	1:2 ✺
14.06.25	Athletic Club - Operário Ferroviario	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 39.6 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
23.09.24	Athletic Club - Ferroviária	3:0
16.09.24	Ferroviária - Athletic Club	3:2
10.08.24	Ferroviária - Athletic Club	1:1
Brazilian Serie D
10.09.23	Athletic Club - Ferroviária	1:2
06.09.23	Ferroviária - Athletic Club	1:0

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