Match Info

Serie D - Round 8

Date: 8 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Presidente Vargas (Fortaleza)


	Ferroviário Fortaleza		Santa Cruz Recife

	1	X	2
	3.4	2.92	2.1
	3.54	2.95	2.14
	3.45	3.04	2.08
	3.4	2.92	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↓ (3.53)	2.96 ↓ (3.24)	2.11 ↑ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviário Fortaleza
26.3%

Draw
30.6%

Santa Cruz Recife
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.7%

28%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

26.7%

48.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviário Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Santa Cruz Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santa Cruz Recife could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ferroviário Fortaleza - Santa Cruz Recife Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Thiago Galhardo ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Ciel ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
74', 2 - 1, Ciel ⚽,
89', 3 - 1, Joao Neto ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 5 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ferroviário won 2.

Ferroviário has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Santa Cruz is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Santa Cruz might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Ferroviário won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ferroviário won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferroviário Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie D
01.06.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:1 ✺
25.05.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - América RN	1:0 ✺
18.05.25	Treze - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	Sousa - Ferroviário Fortaleza	4:0 ✺
04.05.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Horizonte	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLLW
- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Serie D
01.06.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:1 ✺
25.05.25	Sousa - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 ✺
18.05.25	Central SC - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2 ✺
09.05.25	Santa Cruz Recife - América RN	2:1 ✺
03.05.25	Santa Cruz de Natal - Santa Cruz Recife	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
01.06.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:1
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.03.23	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1
Brazilian Serie C
15.08.21	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:0
14.06.21	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Santa Cruz Recife	1:0
05.12.20	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:3
04.10.20	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Santa Cruz Recife	1:3
05.07.19	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:2

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