Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 8

Date: 15 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, RedeTV!, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ferroviária		Avaí

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.88	3.2	Watch
	2.45	2.8	3
	2.42	2.85	3.25
	2.56	2.85	3.42
	2.43	2.77	3.41	Watch
	2.5	2.9	3
	2.39	2.89	3.29	Watch
	2.42	2.85	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.18)	2.85 ↓ (3.2)	3.23 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
38.1%

Draw
32.9%

Avaí
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

28.7%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

29.3%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	55.6%	0%

Ferroviária - Avaí Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferroviária (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 44. Maycon 83. Erik Nascimento 14. Eric Melo 5. Ricardinho (C) 35. Netinho 37. Thiago Lopes 20. Albano 77. Juninho 92. Carlao	1. Igor Bohn (G) 63. Marcos Vinicius 95. Jonathan Costa 14. Eduardo Brock (C) 33. Mario Sergio 77. Ze Ricardo 8. Joao Vitor 80. JP 10. Marquinhos Gabriel 7. Hygor 99. Cleber
Substitutes
8. Alencar 10. Cassio Gabriel 66. Edson Lucas 95. Filipe Costa (G) 25. Ian Luccas 70. Igor Bolt 43. Joao Ramos 7. Kevin 99. Quirino 9. Ronaldo 22. Ronaldo Alves 31. Ze Mario	78. Andrey 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 94. Emerson Negueba 20. Gaspar 16. Jamerson 90. Mendes 35. Pedrao 2. Railan 37. Rigley 41. Thayllon 34. Wanderson
Coaches
Vinicius Bergantin	Jair Ventura

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Cleber ⚽, Joao Vitor (A),
15', Mario Sergio ↓, Andrey ↑,
45+1', 1 - 1, Thiago Lopes ⚽, Carlao (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', JP ↓, Emerson Negueba ↑,
58', Marcos Vinicius 🟨,
61', Eric Melo ↓, Ze Mario ↑,
74', Ricardinho ↓, Alencar ↑,
75', Juninho ↓, Igor Bolt ↑,
75', Hygor ↓, Gaspar ↑,
81', Albano ↓, Cassio Gabriel ↑,
81', Netinho ↓, Ian Luccas ↑,
82', Jonathan Costa 🟨,
84', Marcos Vinicius ↓, Railan ↑,
84', Marquinhos Gabriel ↓, Mendes ↑,
86', Thiago Lopes ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
90', Cleber ↓, Rigley ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

Ferroviária has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Avaí is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Ferroviária: Caua A. (Inactive) Denilson (Inactive)

There will not play in Avaí: Alef Manga (Yellow Cards) Leo Reis (Inactive) Renan (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ferroviária: Ronaldo Alves (Inactive) Thayllon (Inactive) Vitor Barreto (Inactive)

There are questionable in Avaí: Gustavo Barreto (Inactive) Quaresma (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ferroviária won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Including home match between the teams, Ferroviária won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
11.05.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ferroviária	2:2 ✺
02.05.25	Ferroviária - Coritiba	2:1 ✺
27.04.25	Cuiabá - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
22.04.25	Volta Redonda - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
17.04.25	Ferroviária - Atlético Goianiense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TWLTW
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
10.05.25	Avaí - Atlético Goianiense	0:0 ✺
05.05.25	Goiás - Avaí	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	Avaí - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
21.04.25	Amazonas - Avaí	0:2 ✺
16.04.25	Avaí - Operário Ferroviario	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
13.02.20	Ferroviária - Avaí	2:0

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