Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 7

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Grêmio Novorizontino		Ferroviária

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.3	6	Watch
	1.68	3.2	5.25
	1.65	3.5	5.6
	1.76	3.49	5.58
	1.64	3.48	5.95	Watch
	1.75	3.25	5
	1.65	3.5	5.92	Watch
	1.65	3.4	5.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.95)	3.39 ↑ (3.33)	5.65 ↑ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
55.8%

Draw
27.7%

Ferroviária
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

27.9%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

27.4%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grêmio Novorizontino's performance.

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ferroviária might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Grêmio Novorizontino that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ferroviária could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Grêmio Novorizontino - Ferroviária Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Ferroviária (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferroviária (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jordi (G) 2. Rodrigo Soares 3. Rafael Donato 4. Patrick 88. Patrick Brey 6. Luis Oyama 8. Willian Farias (C) 10. Matheus Frizzo 7. Pablo Dyego 99. Nathan Fogaca 38. Leo Natel	41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 13. Gustavo Medina 44. Maycon 14. Eric Melo 5. Ricardinho (C) 77. Juninho 20. Albano 37. Thiago Lopes 35. Netinho 92. Carlao
Substitutes
17. Bruno Jose 26. Dantas 47. Fabio Matheus 14. Gabriel Correia 31. Igor Formiga 9. Lucca 23. Marcelo (G) 28. Marlon 18. Pedro Balotelli 22. Ruiz O. 12. Scapin J. (G) 30. Waguininho	8. Alencar 10. Cassio Gabriel 83. Erik Nascimento 25. Ian Luccas 70. Igor Bolt 7. Kevin 1. Leo Wall (G) 99. Quirino 9. Ronaldo 29. Tarik 57. Wesley Pomba 31. Ze Mario
Coaches
Umberto Louzer	Vinicius Bergantin

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Nathan Fogaca ⚽, Luis Oyama (A),
32', 1 - 1, Thiago Lopes ⚽,
45+2', Eric Melo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 2 - 1, Matheus Frizzo (Pen),
54', 2 - 2, Carlao ⚽, Thiago Lopes (A),
67', Luis Oyama ↓, Marlon ↑,
67', Pablo Dyego ↓, Bruno Jose ↑,
67', Leo Natel ↓, Waguininho ↑,
68', Denis Junior 🟨,
70', Albano ↓, Ian Luccas ↑,
70', Eric Melo ↓, Ze Mario ↑,
78', Netinho ↓, Alencar ↑,
78', Juninho ↓, Igor Bolt ↑,
79', Patrick Brey 🟨,
81', Patrick Brey ↓, Igor Formiga ↑,
81', Matheus Frizzo ↓, Ruiz O. ↑,
88', Marlon 🟨,
89', Ricardinho ↓, Tarik ↑,
90+7', Ze Mario 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 12).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Novorizontino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Novorizontino is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Airton (Inactive) Cesar Martins (Injury) Jean Irmer (Yellow Cards) Renato Palm (Inactive) Robson (Injury) Vitinho (Inactive)

There will not play in Ferroviária: Caua A. (Inactive) Denilson (Inactive) Thayllon (Inactive) Vitor Barreto (Inactive)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 1.6:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Novorizontino won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
04.05.25	Atlético Goianiense - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.04.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
24.04.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
21.04.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
16.04.25	Coritiba - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLWTT
- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
02.05.25	Ferroviária - Coritiba	2:1 ✺
27.04.25	Cuiabá - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
22.04.25	Volta Redonda - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
17.04.25	Ferroviária - Atlético Goianiense	2:0 ✺
12.04.25	Amazonas - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
17.04.21	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ferroviária	3:1
14.03.20	Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0
20.03.19	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ferroviária	1:1
10.03.17	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ferroviária	2:0
06.03.16	Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2

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