Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 24

Date: 1 September 2025, Monday

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Ferroviária		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	2.57	2.82	3	Watch
	2.35	2.9	3
	2.68	2.82	2.82
	2.71	2.87	3.13
	2.74	2.80	2.88	Watch
	2.4	2.9	3.1
	2.75	2.83	2.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.38)	2.85 ↓ (3)	2.97 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
35.9%

Draw
32.7%

Cuiabá
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

31.4%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

30.9%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Ferroviária - Cuiabá Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Cuiabá will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cuiabá (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Denis Junior (G) 13. Gustavo Medina 5. Ricardinho 22. Ronaldo Alves (C) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 8. Alencar 77. Juninho 66. Edson Lucas 25. Ian Luccas 17. Ze Hugo 92. Carlao	50. Luan Polli (G) 98. Matheusinho 33. Alan Empereur (C) 4. Nathan Pelae 5. Calebe Costa 27. Denilson Alves 23. Marcelo Henrique 30. Lucas Mineiro 10. Jader 11. Carlos Alberto 25. Alisson Safira
Substitutes
20. Albano 14. Eric Melo 27. Hernani 43. Joao Ramos 7. Kevin 1. Leo Wall (G) 44. Maycon 9. Ronaldo 29. Tarik 39. Thayllon 37. Thiago Lopes 31. Ze Mario	3. Bruno Alves 20. David Miguel 45. De Lucca 22. Gabriel Mineiro 13. Guilherme Mariano 12. Guilherme Nogueira (G) 70. Juan Christian 7. Martinez A. 8. Max Alves 66. Nathan Cruz
Coaches
Vinicius Bergantin	Guto Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', Luan Polli 🟨,
27', Marcelo Henrique 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Juninho ⚽, Edson Lucas (A),
34', Edson Lucas 🟨,
43', 2 - 0, Alan Empereur (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Lucas Rodrigues ↓, Kevin ↑,
46', Jader ↓, David Miguel ↑,
46', Marcelo Henrique ↓, Max Alves ↑,
55', Juninho 🟨,
58', Lucas Mineiro ↓, Juan Christian ↑,
60', David Miguel 🟨,
61', Alan Empereur 🟨,
64', Carlos Alberto ↓, Martinez A. ↑,
68', Ze Hugo ↓, Thayllon ↑,
69', Ian Luccas ↓, Thiago Lopes ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Alisson Safira ⚽, Martinez A. (A),
77', 2 - 2, Alisson Safira ⚽, Juan Christian (A),
81', Carlao ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
81', Juninho ↓, Hernani ↑,
87', Ronaldo Alves 🟨,
90+1', Ronaldo 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 14 and 10).

Ferroviária is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cuiabá's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Ferroviária: Eric Melo (Inactive) Fabricio Daniel (Red Card) Maycon (Injury) Vitor Barreto (Inactive)

There will not play in Cuiabá: Asad Y. (Injury) Denilson Alves (Yellow Cards) Lucas Mineiro (Yellow Cards) Mateus Pasinato (Inactive) Sander (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ferroviária: Denilson (Inactive) Gustavo Jundi (Inactive)

There are questionable in Cuiabá: Alan Empereur (Injury) Matheusinho (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Ferroviária - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 39.63%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
24.08.25	Ferroviária - Volta Redonda	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	Atlético Goianiense - Ferroviária	1:3 ✺
08.08.25	Ferroviária - Amazonas	2:1 ✺
01.08.25	Remo - Ferroviária	0:2 ✺
26.07.25	Ferroviária - Operário Ferroviario	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 TWWWT
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
24.08.25	Cuiabá - Atlético Goianiense	2:2 ✺
16.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
10.08.25	Avaí - Cuiabá	2:0 ✺
04.08.25	Cuiabá - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
29.07.25	Criciúma - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
27.04.25	Cuiabá - Ferroviária	1:0

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