Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 19

Date: 26 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara)

Referee: Filho A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Ferroviária		Operário Ferroviario

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	3.1	Watch
	2.5	2.87	2.85
	2.52	2.82	3
	2.67	2.89	3.26
	2.6	2.9	2.9
	2.61	2.8	3.13	Watch
	2.23	3	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.23)	2.9 ↓ (3)	3.08 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
37.2%

Draw
32.3%

Operário Ferroviario
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

30.7%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

29.3%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Operário Ferroviario has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ferroviária, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Operário Ferroviario than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	83.3%	0%

Ferroviária - Operário Ferroviario Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Denis Junior (G) 7. Kevin 22. Ronaldo Alves (C) 13. Gustavo Medina 66. Edson Lucas 5. Ricardinho 8. Alencar 20. Albano 37. Thiago Lopes 39. Thayllon 92. Carlao	1. Elias Curzel (G) 18. Gabriel Souza 30. Joseph 16. Miranda 27. Gabriel Feliciano 8. Zuluaga J. 5. Indio 21. Brenno Pereira 10. Boschilia (C) 7. Rodrigo Rodrigues 9. Vinicius Mingotti
Substitutes
10. Cassio Gabriel 14. Eric Melo 80. Fabio 95. Filipe Costa (G) 25. Ian Luccas 43. Joao Ramos 77. Juninho 88. Raoni 9. Ronaldo 17. Victor Silva 57. Wesley Pomba 31. Ze Mario	99. Ademilson 4. Giraldo J. 32. Gomes K. 6. Jefferson 17. Jhemerson 75. Kleiton 22. Leo Silva 19. Matheus Souza 36. Nilson Junior 70. Pedro Lucas 33. Vagner (G)
Coaches
Vinicius Bergantin	Alex

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Albano 🟥,
33', Brenno Pereira 🟨,
36', Thiago Lopes 🟨,
41', Zuluaga J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Brenno Pereira ↓, Kleiton ↑,
46', Zuluaga J. ↓, Jhemerson ↑,
58', Carlao 🟨,
61', Thiago Lopes ↓, Cassio Gabriel ↑,
62', Juninho ↓, Ian Luccas ↑,
66', Gustavo Medina 🟨,
76', Rodrigo Rodrigues ↓, Matheus Souza ↑,
76', Gabriel Feliciano ↓, Pedro Lucas ↑,
77', Carlao ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
77', Alencar ↓, Thayllon ↑,
82', Vinicius Mingotti ↓, Ademilson ↑,
90+1', Thayllon 🟨,
90+2', Ricardinho ↓, Eric Melo ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 12).

Ferroviária is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Operário PR has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Operário PR may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Ferroviária: Denilson (Inactive) Eric Melo (Inactive) Erik Nascimento (Inactive) Lucas Rodrigues (Yellow Cards) Maycon (Injury) Netinho (Yellow Cards) Tarik (Yellow Cards) Vitor Barreto (Inactive)

There will not play in Operário PR: Daniel Amorim (Inactive) Neto Paraiba (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Ferroviária: Alencar (Injury) Cassio Gabriel (Inactive) Gustavo Jundi (Inactive)

There are questionable in Operário PR: Fransergio (Inactive) Jean Lucas (Injury) Marcos Paulo (Inactive)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Ferroviária - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 41.34%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
22.07.25	Athletico Paranaense - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
18.07.25	Ferroviária - Athletic Club	1:2 ✺
13.07.25	Criciúma - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
06.07.25	Ferroviária - Vila Nova	1:3 ✺
30.06.25	Paysandu - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TLLLL
- Operário Ferroviario
Brazilian Serie B
22.07.25	Operário Ferroviario - Atlético Goianiense	3:0 ✺
17.07.25	Operário Ferroviario - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
11.07.25	Vila Nova - Operário Ferroviario	0:0 ✺
07.07.25	Operário Ferroviario - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
29.06.25	Volta Redonda - Operário Ferroviario	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WTTLL

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