Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 22

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Ligga Arena (Curitiba)

Referee: de Lima M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Athletico Paranaense		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.5	5.75	Watch
	1.72	3.3	4.6
	1.68	3.35	5.3
	1.7	3.51	5.81
	1.72	3.39	5.20	Watch
	1.75	3.2	4.8
	1.65	3.47	5.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.75)	3.39 ↓ (3.5)	5.31 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
54.9%

Draw
27.5%

Cuiabá
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

27%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

28.8%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Santos (C) 29. Benavidez G. 45. Belezi 65. Arthur Dias 37. Esquivel L. 10. Zapelli B. 63. Diogo Riquelme 88. Patrick 17. Mendoza S. 9. Viveros K. 19. Luiz Fernando	12. Guilherme Nogueira (G) 98. Matheusinho 3. Bruno Alves 4. Nathan Pelae 23. Marcelo Henrique 7. Martinez A. 30. Lucas Mineiro 5. Calebe Costa 27. Denilson Alves 25. Alisson Safira (C) 11. Carlos Alberto
Substitutes
27. Alan Kardec 53. Dudu Kogitzki 5. Felipinho 8. Giuliano 28. Habraao 11. Isaac 57. Joao Cruz 61. Leo Derik 21. Leozinho 1. Mycael (G) 70. Renan Peixoto 26. Vitinho	1. Arthur (G) 20. David Miguel 45. De Lucca 13. Guilherme Mariano 10. Jader 70. Juan Christian 8. Max Alves 22. Nino Paraiba 16. Pasadore F.
Coaches
Hellmann O.	Barros E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Diogo Riquelme ↓, Leozinho ↑,
53', Lucas Mineiro 🟨,
64', Mendoza S. (Pen),
65', Martinez A. ↓, Max Alves ↑,
69', Carlos Alberto ↓, Juan Christian ↑,
72', Mendoza S. ↓, Renan Peixoto ↑,
79', Luiz Fernando ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
79', Patrick ↓, Isaac ↑,
83', Lucas Mineiro ↓, Guilherme Mariano ↑,
83', Alisson Safira ↓, Pasadore F. ↑,
83', Denilson Alves ↓, De Lucca ↑,
89', Zapelli B. ↓, Alan Kardec ↑,
90+2', 1 - 0, Renan Peixoto ⚽,
90+4', 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 1, Matheusinho ⚽, Guilherme Mariano (A),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Athletico PR may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Athletico PR is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Athletico PR: Aguirre Tabares J. F. (Foot Injury) Julimar (Knee Injury) Raul (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Cuiabá: Alan Empereur (Injury) Asad Y. (Injury) Mateus Pasinato (Inactive) Pedrinho (Inactive)

There are questionable in Athletico PR: Madson (Muscle Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:2. (average 2.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie B
11.08.25	Criciúma - Athletico Paranaense	4:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - São Paulo	2:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - Paysandu	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
31.07.25	São Paulo - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
27.07.25	América Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWTLT
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
10.08.25	Avaí - Cuiabá	2:0 ✺
04.08.25	Cuiabá - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
29.07.25	Criciúma - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
23.07.25	Cuiabá - América Mineiro	3:1 ✺
19.07.25	Goiás - Cuiabá	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
15.04.25	Cuiabá - Athletico Paranaense	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
28.07.24	Cuiabá - Athletico Paranaense	1:2
14.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	4:0
06.12.23	Cuiabá - Athletico Paranaense	3:0
15.08.23	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	2:0
18.09.22	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	2:2
29.05.22	Cuiabá - Athletico Paranaense	0:1

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