Match Info

Serie D - Round 11

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Presidente Vargas (Fortaleza)


	Ferroviário Fortaleza		Sousa

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.1	3.3
	2.08	3.05	3.3
	2.13	3.1	3.46
	2.14	3.13	3.21
	1.83	3.25	3.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.79)	3.13 ↓ (3.35)	3.41 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviário Fortaleza
44.5%

Draw
28.9%

Sousa
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

26.9%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

25.6%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviário Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ferroviário Fortaleza's form might have worsened.

Sousa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ferroviário Fortaleza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sousa than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Ferroviário Fortaleza - Sousa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferroviário (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 6).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Ferroviário is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ferroviário won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Ferroviário won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferroviário Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie D
28.06.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Treze	1:1 ✺
16.06.25	América RN - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:2 ✺
08.06.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Santa Cruz Recife	3:1 ✺
01.06.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:1 ✺
25.05.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - América RN	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TLWLW
- Sousa
Brazilian Serie D
29.06.25	Sousa - Horizonte	3:1 ✺
15.06.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Sousa	2:0 ✺
11.06.25	Sousa - América RN	1:0 ✺
01.06.25	América RN - Sousa	2:0 ✺
25.05.25	Sousa - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
11.05.25	Sousa - Ferroviário Fortaleza	4:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Sousa	2:0

Ferroviário Fortaleza - Sousa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide