Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 7

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Orlando Scarpelli (Florianópolis)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping


	Figueirense		Itabaiana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.87	3.2	3.7
	1.9	3.15	3.7	Watch
	1.93	3.35	4.1
	1.88	3.39	4.14	Watch
	1.91	3.1	3.6
	1.82	3.22	4.14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.66)	3.24 ↓ (3.51)	3.9 ↓ (5.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Figueirense
48.4%

Draw
28.2%

Itabaiana
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

26.5%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

22.8%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Figueirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Figueirense's form might have worsened.

Itabaiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Itabaiana's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Figueirense than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Figueirense - Itabaiana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
52. Igo Gabriel (G) 20. Guilherme Vieira 91. Hyuri 70. Igor Bolt 30. Jean Mangabeira 2. Leo Maia 3. Leonan Santos 37. Lucas Dias (C) 7. Raynan 5. Renan Areias 66. Ryan Carlos	1. Leo Souza (G) 3. Betao (C) 9. Everton Kanela 5. Gustavo Crecci 8. Karl 7. Leilson 4. Ligger 23. Lucas Bessa 2. Ricardo Cerqueira 10. Rodrigo Alves 6. Tarcisio
Substitutes
11. Arthur Martins 14. Breno 12. Fabricio Santana (G) 27. Felipe Santiago 35. Flavio 25. Jhonnathan 77. Joao Choco 82. Jose Carlos 9. Lucas Alves 17. Mailson 28. Rafinha Potiguar 22. Vitor Ricardo	21. Caio Felipe 20. Cleiton 17. Fabricio Moura 12. Geaze (G) 14. Gustavo Cintra 15. Isaque 19. Luan Silva 13. Lucao 18. Pedro Igor 11. Renatinho 16. Tito
Coaches
Raul Cabral	Marcelo Chamusca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Everton Kanela ⚽,
44', Lucas Bessa 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jean Mangabeira ↓, Joao Choco ↑,
57', Hyuri ↓, Lucas Alves ↑,
57', Leo Maia ↓, Vitor Ricardo ↑,
68', Renan Areias ↓, Flavio ↑,
68', Guilherme Vieira ↓, Arthur Martins ↑,
77', Everton Kanela ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
78', Karl ↓, Fabricio Moura ↑,
85', Lucas Bessa ↓, Caio Felipe ↑,
85', Rodrigo Alves ↓, Renatinho ↑,
85', Leilson ↓, Isaque ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 14 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D).

Recent performances by Figueirense have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Itabaiana's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Figueirense is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Figueirense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Figueirense
Brazilian Serie C
10.05.26	Amazonas - Figueirense	0:1 ✺
04.05.26	Figueirense - Barra Santa Catarina	0:3 ✺
26.04.26	Anápolis - Figueirense	3:1 ✺
19.04.26	Figueirense - Botafogo PB	2:1 ✺
13.04.26	Figueirense - Maringá	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WLLWL
- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Serie C
09.05.26	Itabaiana - Floresta	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	Maringá - Itabaiana	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Piauí - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
25.04.26	Itabaiana - Paysandu	1:4 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.04.26	Itabaiana - Botafogo PB	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
12.05.25	Itabaiana - Figueirense	1:1

Figueirense - Itabaiana: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide