Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 28

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio di Fiorentino (Fiorentino)


	Fiorentino		Faetano

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.45	3.85
	1.65	3.6	4.4
	1.75	3.6	4.18	Watch
	1.78	3.38	4.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.6)	3.51 ↓ (3.89)	4.14 ↓ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentino
52.2%

Draw
25.9%

Faetano
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

23.7%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.5%

22.9%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fiorentino's form might have worsened.

Faetano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentino than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fiorentino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Faetano than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Fiorentino - Faetano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Ben Kacem M. ⚽, Belward S. (A),
37', 1 - 1, Pallante G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', 1 - 2, Elia G. ⚽,
83', Kokeri S. 🟥,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentino won 4.

Fiorentino is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Faetano has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Fiorentino is seen as the favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Fiorentino won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentino won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.8:2.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Fiorentino	4	1	1	2	4:5	-1	4
16	Faetano	4	0	2	2	1:9	-8	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Fiorentino
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
07.04.26	San Marino Academy U22 - Fiorentino	0:3 ✺
21.03.26	Fiorentino - AC Libertas	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Cailungo - Fiorentino	1:3 ✺
07.03.26	Cosmos - Fiorentino	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Fiorentino - Tre Fiori	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WTWWL
- SC Faetano
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
07.04.26	Faetano - Domagnano	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	San Giovanni - Faetano	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Faetano - Juvenes-Dogana	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Faetano - San Marino Academy U22	2:4 ✺
28.02.26	La Fiorita - Faetano	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
13.12.25	Faetano - Fiorentino	0:3
27.04.25	Faetano - Fiorentino	2:3
11.01.25	Fiorentino - Faetano	1:0
14.04.24	Fiorentino - Faetano	1:3
06.01.24	Faetano - Fiorentino	0:1
18.02.23	Faetano - Fiorentino	0:2
09.10.22	Fiorentino - Faetano	2:5

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