Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 25

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Cailungo		Fiorentino

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.2	1.92
	3.65	3.38	1.86
	3.7	3.39	1.92	Watch
	3.5	3	1.95
	3.72	3.3	1.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.63 ↓ (3.65)	3.25 ↓ (3.38)	1.91 ↓ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cailungo
24.9%

Draw
27.8%

Fiorentino
47.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.2%

27.2%

47.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

26.4%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cailungo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Fiorentino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cailungo than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentino than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Cailungo - Fiorentino Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Abouzziane S. ⚽, Evaristi M. (A),
31', 0 - 2, Mariano M. ⚽, Abouzziane S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
72', 1 - 2, Bua A. ⚽,
79', 1 - 3, Costantini M. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cailungo won 1.

Cailungo is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Fiorentino has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cailungo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Fiorentino could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Cailungo won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:18. (average 0.6:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Cailungo won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Fiorentino	4	1	1	2	4:5	-1	4
11	Cailungo	4	1	0	3	4:5	-1	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SP Cailungo
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
08.03.26	Tre Fiori - Cailungo	3:2 ✺
01.03.26	Cailungo - Domagnano	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	San Giovanni - Cailungo	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Cailungo - La Fiorita	0:3 ✺
11.02.26	Cailungo - San Marino Academy U22	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLT
- FC Fiorentino
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
07.03.26	Cosmos - Fiorentino	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Fiorentino - Tre Fiori	0:2 ✺
21.02.26	Fiorentino - Juvenes-Dogana	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Virtus - Fiorentino	3:0 ✺
11.02.26	La Fiorita - Fiorentino	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 33.2 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
23.11.25	Fiorentino - Cailungo	1:0
09.11.24	Fiorentino - Cailungo	1:0
24.01.24	Cailungo - Fiorentino	0:3
23.09.23	Fiorentino - Cailungo	0:1
16.04.23	Fiorentino - Cailungo	6:0
07.01.23	Cailungo - Fiorentino	2:2
02.04.22	Fiorentino - Cailungo	4:0

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