Match Info

Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 5

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)


	Flamengo		Portuguesa RJ

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	3.15
	2.24	3.35	3.09	Watch
	2.15	3	3
	2.15	3.13	3.51
	2.14	3.25	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↑ (1.46)	3.19 ↓ (4.11)	3.25 ↓ (6.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
42.5%

Draw
29%

Portuguesa RJ
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.5%

22.6%

13.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Flamengo's form might have worsened.

Portuguesa RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Portuguesa RJ's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	41.7%	16.7%

Flamengo - Portuguesa RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Portuguesa RJ will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 1 - 20%). Portuguesa RJ (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Flamengo (2.15) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Portuguesa RJ (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
58. Leo Nannetti (G) 51. Daniel Sales 57. Iago Teodoro (C) 61. Joao Victor 77. Goes J. 56. Pablo Lucio 47. Guilherme Gomes 81. Douglas Telles 79. Joshua 72. Lucas Vieira 64. Wallace Yan	1. Douglas Borges (G) 2. Savio 13. Lucas Costa (C) 93. Henrique C. 33. Guilherme Santos 5. Henrique Rocha 8. Joao Paulo 18. Rhuan Silveira 20. Guilherme Silveira 27. Bruno Mota 19. Leo Muchacho
Substitutes
59. Alan 41. Da Mata 60. Germano 74. Gusttavo 71. Henrique Vieira Batista P. 80. Joao Camargo 42. Joao Carbone 67. Kaio Junior 69. Nobrega K. 63. Viana de Oliveira D. 76. Wanderson 66. Xavier B.	17. Albert 30. Alex Moretti 7. Anderson Rosa 11. Gui Mendes 16. Gutemberg 15. Hugo Iglesias 3. Leo Cruz 22. Luis Gustavo 10. Romarinho 9. Uelber 12. Vinicius Barreta (G) 21. Willian
Coaches
Bruno Pivetti	Alex Nascif

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Joao Paulo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', Daniel Sales 🟨,
57', Douglas Telles ↓, Alan ↑,
58', 0 - 1, Rhuan Silveira ⚽,
62', Leo Muchacho 🟨,
64', Guilherme Silveira ↓, Uelber ↑,
65', Joao Paulo ↓, Albert ↑,
74', Leo Muchacho ↓, Anderson Rosa ↑,
74', Henrique Rocha ↓, Leo Cruz ↑,
78', Lucas Vieira ↓, Nobrega K. ↑,
85', 🟨,
86', Joshua ↓, Viana de Oliveira D. ↑,
87', 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,
90+10', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+12', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 3.

Flamengo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Flamengo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 32:7. (average 3.2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Flamengo won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:4. (average 3.4:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
FIFA Intercontinental Cup
17.12.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Flamengo	2:1 penalties ✺
13.12.25	Flamengo - Pyramids	2:0 ✺
10.12.25	Cruz Azul - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.12.25	Mirassol - Flamengo	3:3 ✺
03.12.25	Flamengo - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWWTW
- Portuguesa RJ
Brazilian Copa Rio
20.09.25	Portuguesa RJ - America RJ	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	America RJ - Portuguesa RJ	1:0 ✺
06.09.25	Portuguesa RJ - Maricá	1:1 ✺
03.09.25	Maricá - Portuguesa RJ	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	Portuguesa RJ - Bangu	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
05.02.25	Portuguesa RJ - Flamengo	0:5
27.01.24	Portuguesa RJ - Flamengo	0:0
15.01.23	Flamengo - Portuguesa RJ	4:1
26.01.22	Flamengo - Portuguesa RJ	2:1
17.04.21	Portuguesa RJ - Flamengo	2:2
14.03.20	Flamengo - Portuguesa RJ	2:1
28.02.19	Portuguesa RJ - Flamengo	1:3

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